Assad’s future in the balance

The West believes everything will be hunkydory in Syria if President Bashar Al Assad is shown the door. There will be peace and tranquility and everything will go back to normal. Bygones will be bygones. Wishful thinking. He’s not going on his own, that’s for certain. A little nudge from Russia and Iran could help. Again, that’s a Western dream that is not premised on reality. Would Assad’s backers play ball this time and see him off after claims that the dictator used chemical weapons on his own people in Idlib last week? What’s the scenario if Assad goes? He must, the West insists because there is no resolution in sight. The man is a brutal dictator who has caused the death of thousands of his people. So have others like Daesh and the disparate opposition who are led by people sitting in their comfort zones in Switzerland.

The Russians, Hezbollah, the Iranians and terror groups like Al Nusra and Al Qaeda are also entrenched in the country. Battles are being fought on many fronts, territory has been carved out by the combatants. It’s hard to let go for Assad when believes he is on top of his murderous campaign. Russian air intervention and the Iranian-Hezbollah combine on the ground helped Assad fend off rebel and terror groups that were threatening to unseat him last year. He’s come out guns blazing. The chemical attack set him back, not militarily, but in the moral sense, the West believes — as if there is any morality left in a war that has killed some 500,000 people and driven five million out of the country in six years. What’s so ethical about other weapons of war that have claimed innocent lives — bullets, barrel bombs and Tomahawk missiles? The West believes (that word again) that it can convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to shift position on Assad. A sugarcoated deal? Might be tempting to Moscow with its own economic problems to deal with. A joint operation against Daesh and other terror groups and then split the spoils in Syria is an option that can be considered. Meanwhile, the two sides can work on a transition government agreement. Should Assad be part of it? That’s the other dilemma which takes us further away from peace in Syria.