Why moderate Rouhani is best for Iran’s ties to the world
Iranians will be choosing their new president on May 19. In the 2013 presidential election, Hassan Rouhani won in the first round by securing a little over 50 per cent of the votes, while the runner-up, Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf, managed to bag about 16 per cent. Four years later, the same two candidates are among the three main contenders facing off.
On April 20, Iran’s Guardian Council vetted six presidential candidates: Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi, Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf, Eshaq Jahangiri, Mostafa Mirsalim, and Mostafa HashemiTaba. Three weeks before election day, they faced-off against each other in a live, televised debate. Each candidate either pushed his plan or took the opportunity to grill the others.
After the first round of presidential debates, Rouhani’s first vice-president, Jahangari, was portrayed as a hero, following his strong stand against Ghalibaf. The internet was flooded with images of Jahangari’s face superimposed on Superman’s body, and even on that of Argentina and FC Barcelona footballing ace, Lionel Messi. Despite this, Jahangiri will likely step down before the polls, declaring his support for Rouhani.
Recent poll numbers suggest the three most serious contenders in this election are Rouhani (moderate), Ghalibaf (populist conservative), and Raisi (conservative). Rouhani’s presidential term has meant that he is well known both at home and abroad. While Iranians, especially Tehranis, are familiar with Ghalibaf, the international community does not know much about him. Raisi is more of a mystery, both domestically and internationally. He was cast into the limelight when various sources indicated he might potentially be the next supreme leader.
While the finalists in this presidential race are clear, there are still doubts about who exactly will end up in the second and the third positions. Rouhani is the most likely to win the presidency, for a number of reasons. While facing continuous criticism that the P5+1 nuclear deal failed to bring promised economic prosperity to Iran, the Rouhani administration did keep its word to a certain degree. Iran visibly opened up to the world, and although the average Iranian is unable to taste the fruits of the nuclear agreement, delivery of new Airbus planes to the country’s flag carrier,
Re-election will give Iran at least another four years of relative openness, allowing it to strengthen its international role Iran Air, is seen as one of the better outcomes of the deal.
The populist Ghalibaf recently defied religious establishment’s call to step down and let Raisi lead the conservative camp. Having two conservatives in the race is likely to end up splitting the conservative vote, which may cause the election to go through a second round of voting. For some Iranians, all three candidates are somehow tainted. Before the list of candidates was announced, analysts believed Ghalibaf — who is the current mayor of Tehran — would not pass the vetting process. This was due to the collapse of Tehran’s Plasco building, which left at least 20 firefighters dead. Raisi is often linked to the 1988 mass execution of political prisoners following the Iran-Iraq war. The mine explosion in Golestan province of Iran left 42 dead, and a number of angry miners attacked Rouhani’s car during his visit to the disaster site.
The elected individual will play a key role not only in Iran’s domestic politics, but also on the global stage. Rouhani’s re-election will give Iran at least another four years of relative openness, allowing it to strengthen its international role. In the course of his presidential campaign, Rouhani has promised to remove all remaining sanctions on Iran. While this might be far fetched, given the Donald Trump presidency in the United States, he is still the most suitable candidate to reach this goal.
Rouhani has improved Iran’s image and relations with foreign actors. It was his administration that achieved the start of a dialogue with the GCC. In a scenario where a more conservative candidate wins, Iran will go back four years, and will be isolated again. And while both Ghalibaf and Raisi promise to stick to the nuclear agreement, they are least likely to hold amicable dialogue with international actors.
Furthermore, both candidates are particularly sceptical of what the nuclear deal might achieve for Iran. The conservative candidates will not react to any pushback from the US administration in the same way the moderates did, and this might jeopardise the nuclear deal. This could potentially lead to a return of sanctions against Iran. Farangiz Atamuradova is an analyst at The Delma Institute, a foreign affairs research house located in Abu Dhabi.