Russia: New superpower in food supply
Russia exported 27.8 million metric tonnes of wheat, more than the entire European Union, to claim first place in the world for the first time since the EU has been counted as a unit.
moscow — Russia is often seen as a country that produces little that the world wants except energy commodities. The oil export dependence looks like a major time bomb under the country’s future, given the current focus in the West and in China on reducing the use of hydrocarbon fuels. By an ironic quirk, however, Russia appears to be benefiting from the climate change its energy resources are helping to fuel: Its prospects as the world’s biggest wheat exporter and a grain superpower are bright, not least because of the rise in global temperatures.
In the last marketing year, which ran from July 2016 through June 2017, Russia exported 27.8 million metric tonnes of wheat, more than the entire European Union, to claim first place in the world for the first time since the EU has been counted as a unit. In the current marketing year, the US Department of Agriculture predicts, Russia will export 31.5 million metric tonnes, increasing its global lead; it’s already facing infrastructure constraints because of the fast growth. It’s also a leading exporter of corn, barley and oats. Along with Ukraine and Kazakhstan, it’s part of the force increasingly shaping global grain markets — RUK, as it is known to market experts. Alexander Tkachev, Russia’s agriculture minister, has repeatedly said that he sees grain eventually displacing oil as the country’s biggest export revenue source. That’s not a view the Kremlin likes to entertain — it would rather hope for a technology boom — but Tkachev’s prophecy may be more realistic for a number of reasons.
The first two of these are outside of Russia’s purview: The growing global population and climate change. Global grain consumption grew, on average, 2.8 per cent a year in 2011-2016, and the International Grains Council predicts 1.4 per cent annual increases through 2021. At the same time, climate studies show that, compared to the late 1980s, the time of the Soviet Union’s demise, which depressed Eurasian agriculture for more than a decade, the temperature in Eurasia’s grain-producing areas will increase by up to 1.8 degrees by the 2020s and by up to 3.9 degrees by the 2050s, with the greatest increase in winter. This means a longer growing season and better crop yields. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is also good for crops.
The climate factor may already be helping Russia grab new export markets in Asia as US, Canadian and Australian rivals suffer from droughts.