Kurdish ‘yes’ vote puts Iraq’s security in peril

Partnership between Baghdad and Erbil, which led to near complete defeat of Daesh, should be the focus

about the “potentially destabilising effects” of the referendum.

But the most vociferous critics have been Turkey and Iran, both of which have Kurdish secessionist movements that they fear could be encouraged by the vote. Turkey has said it may close its border with the Kurdish region, while Iran prevented flights into and out of the Kurdish region from using its airspace. Both countries have threatened military action if the Kurdish region secedes from Iraq, and to make who want to express their aspiration for self-determination. This is why moving forward, Abadi and the government in Baghdad must figure out how to differentiate between the actions of Kurdish politicians and the generations-long collective emotional wishes of the Kurdish people.

If Baghdad works with its neighbours it can rebalance the relationship between the federal government and the Kurdish government and maintain peaceful control of the situation. Control part in manoeuvers on the Turkish side of the border.

These measures will pressure the Kurdish leadership to agree to some of Baghdad’s terms. Such measures would satisfy pressure on the Iraqi federal government from its Arab and non-Kurdish communities to check Kurdish expansionism and also pacify Turkish and Iranian worries about instability. But they will not answer the longer-term questions about Iraqi Kurdish aspirations for independence or the fate of Kirkuk.

These questions will need to be answered through tough negotiations between Baghdad and the Kurdish government. Before that, the partnership between Baghdad and Erbil, backed by the international coalition, which has led to the near complete defeat of Daesh in Iraq, should continue to be the focus.

Other countries, in particular the US, can also play a positive role. By supporting Baghdad’s efforts to prevent conflict and by encouraging the Kurdish government to be more flexible in its dealing with the federal government, the United States and others can bring the two sides together. This will avoid giving too great a role for Turkey and Iran, who are more concerned about their own interests. This may be the only way to reach a peaceful resolution to a tense situation in a region. —NYT Syndicate Sajad Jiyad is managing director of the Bayan Center for Planning and Studies

Abadi now has a tough job. He must keep Iraq whole and reassure Turkey and Iran enough that they do not intervene