Bad politics could hurt Pakistan’s economic gains
Pakistan is to go to parliamentary polls in 2018. A usual preelection year should feature politicians making pitches to voters. But ahead of elections, the South Asian country that has sweated out dictatorships for almost half its age, is witnessing interparty squabbling; state institutions jostling for space; politicians facing court cases; and media baying for politicians’ blood — all contributing to the uncertainty that has already taken its toll on the country’s economy.
The country’s top court had dismissed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in July over concealing financial assets. He was also forced to step down as president of his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, though he had kept control of the party and installed Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, a loyalist, as prime minister. Now facing trial along with his children before an anti-corruption court, Sharif is back in his party’s saddle and has denied any wrongdoing. Making a defiant comeback as a party head, Sharif in his acceptance speech accused the Supreme Court of subverting the will of the people, who voted him into power in 2013 for the third time. “I believe that the only way to consolidate democracy is to respect the mandate given by the people,” he said promising to lead his party to a more decisive victory in elections due next year, amid chants of “Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ” by hundreds of party workers at Islamabad’s convention centre. “The use of law to change the mandate of the people must end.”
His re-election on October 3 came after a bill was approved in the parliament the previous day, allowing officials disqualified by courts to hold party offices. Opposition parties have started challenging the new bill in court, saying it was just a means of paving way for Sharif’s stay as party president. Imran Khan, former cricket star and head of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, who also faces a case of concealment of assets in the Supreme Court, tweeted: “Today a mockery was made of the constitution simply to rescue Nawaz Sharif politically.”
In re-electing Sharif as its president, his party has staved off an imminent split between members who take a soft line and those who take a hard line towards the country’s powerful establishment whom Sharif accuses of manoeuvering his exit, a charge it denies. Strain was evident on October 2 as well when paramilitary rangers, nominally under the control of the interior ministry, barred Interior Minister Ahsan Iqbal from entering the accountability courts where Sharif appeared. “Two states cannot function in one state,” Iqbal said threatening to resign in protest. However, Railways Minister Saad Rafiq sounded conciliatory the next day. Speaking at a television show, he said they could take a step back “in the national interest”. But any such attempt at mending ties may not be liked by a section of the media that takes freedom of the media so far as to declare an accused person guilty before the verdict of the court, fail to adhere to journalistic values, and provides fair and correct information to the public, and shapes an opinion inimical to democracy and politicians.
Amid such a din, the country’s economy is taking a major hit. The Karachi Stock Exchange-100 Index tanked 903.12 points or 2.15 per cent on October 3, as increasing political turbulence unsettled investors. However, the central bank and the government are determined to work together to achieve the targeted GDP growth rate of 6 per cent for the fiscal year 2018. The central bank has maintained the key interest rate at 5.75 per cent for the next two months, considering inflation would remain below the target of 6 per cent in FY18 despite modest rise going forward. But according to a local brokerage house, the State Bank of Pakistan’s assessment is underestimating threats to the economy given recent increase in international oil price, depleting dollar reserves and pressures on currency and exports.
To exploit the bruising the ruling party has received, courtesy the court cases and the bad press, Imran Khan has called for snap elections. However, the ruling clique won’t oblige him until they have fulfilled their 2013 election promise of ending the electricity shortage. As things stand, opposition parties will keep tightening the screw for the government amid court cases against the Sharifs, making the situation quite unsettling for the country. The uncertainty needs to be overcome as soon as possible before it takes the shape of a crisis and puts the 2018 elections in doubt. Waqar Mustafa is a print, broadcast and online journalist and
commentator based in Pakistan
The country’s economy has taken a major hit. The Karachi Stock Exchange-100 Index tanked 903.12 points or 2.15 per cent on October 3