Kerala keen to find out reasons for drop in Gulf job seekers

trivandrum — With the Middle East, which was once the dream of many a Keralite, no longer that attractive on account of falling oil prices and with no proper records of the actual number of returnees, a new diaspora study covering 25,000 households has been launched to find out what the actual scenario is.

The study aims to not only analyse the present trends in migration but also the medium and longterm consequences of important developments like the global financial crisis of 2009, the drop in oil prices and the stricter immigration policies increasingly followed by countries worldwide and its impact on Kerala’s economy.

S. Irudayarajan, who heads the study by the Migration Unit at the Centre for Development Studies here said its single purpose is to examine ground realities and not to go by unfounded reports that there is a mass exodus from the Middle East. “This new survey has been titled Kerala Migration StudyKMS@20. The study would be done in 25,000 Kerala households spread over all the 14 districts and the first results would emerge in April,” Irudayarajan said.

KMS is widely regarded as a reliable and authentic source of data for researchers and policymakers. Following the success of the Kerala model, similar initiatives have been launched in Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Goa and Gujarat, from where large numbers of people have spread out across the globe.

Irudayarajan pointed out that structural changes in the global oil market and the consequent fall in oil prices have posed fresh challenges to the oil-producing countries in the Middle East in the last few years.

“The repercussions are being felt in Kerala’s economy and society which has been a consistent supplier of workers and a receiver of large amounts of remittances. Additionally, the governments in Gulf countries have been progressively evolving institutional arrangements and programmes aimed at promoting the employment of their own nationals,” Irudayarajan said. He also pointed out that things are not rosy was pointed out in the KMS-2016 study, when for the first time a decline was noticed in number of Kerala emigrants abroad from 2.4 million in 2014 to 2.24 million in 2016.

The state had 1.36 million emigrants when the first KMS was conducted in 1998. The figure rose to 1.83 million in 2003, 2.19 million in 2008, 2.28 million in 2011 and peaked at 2.4 million in 2014. He added that once the results are out later in the year, the state government can evolve appropriate interventions in education, employment and skill development of prospective emigrants as well as the re-integration of returnees into Kerala’s economy and society.

Irudayarajan pointed out that it was wrong to come to conclusions only based on the arrivals and departures from the three Kerala airports as this will only give a lop-sided picture.

“The figures from the airports are only numbers and do not differentiate between workers and others, as they include women and children. Besides, there are a good number of Keralites who go for holidays to the Middle East. Our 2016 survey had already showed that there was a decline and now in a few months from now, we will bring out the actual picture,” Irudayarajan added. —