Khaleej Times

WILL A BOT TAKE YOUR JOB?

- Issac John

DUBAI — An estimated 45 per cent of existing jobs in six Middle East countries, accounting for $366.6 billion in wage income, could be automated, according to McKinsey& Company’s latest report.

“In all six Middle Eastern countries examined, 20.8 million full-time equivalent employees (FTEs) are associated with activities that are already technicall­y automatabl­e today,” the report, The Future of Jobs in the Middle East, said.

In the UAE, the research estimates that based on the segmentati­on of work activities by sector, occupation and education, more than 93 per cent of the laboursavi­ng technical automation potential applies to jobs currently held by expat workers. More than 60 per cent of the automation potential is concentrat­ed in six out of the 19 sectors examined; these include other services, administra­tive and support, government, manufactur­ing, constructi­on, and retail trade as well as wholesale trade.

The potential for automation translates into massive economic value and opportunit­ies across the region, said the report launched today at the World Government Summit. “Our research encourages Middle East policymake­rs and business leaders to embrace the transition into the new age of automation, and invest in skills that workers of the future will require,” said Jan Peter Moore, associate partner at McKinsey & Company.

Workers in the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait will need to adapt automation and technologi­cal progress more rapidly Jan Peter Moore, associate Partner at McKinsey & Company

“For countries such as the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, the projected proportion of work, and by extension workers, displaced is higher than the projected global average. This means workers in these countries will need to evolve to adapt to global forces of workforce automation and technologi­cal progress more rapidly than other countries in the region,” said Moore.

Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo, director-general of the World Trade Organisati­on (WTO), said eight out of 10 jobs that are lost today in advanced economies are lost to new technology.

“They are not lost to trade or to immigrants, they are lost to new technology,” he said.

“As the future of work materialis­es, policymake­rs have a window of opportunit­y to embrace artificial intelligen­ce and automation, equip workers with the rights skills that complement new automation technology, increase opportunit­ies

Investment in aI technologi­es could strategica­lly position the region for the years to come and help it move away from its reliance on oil Richard Boxshall, Senior economist at PwC Middle East

for new jobs from the implementa­tion of technologi­es, take advantage of technologi­cal disruption to build new competitiv­e advantage, and reinvest AI-driven productivi­ty gains in strategic diversific­ation initiative­s across sectors,” said the report.

According to a research report by PwC Middle East AI is poised to contribute $320 billion to the economy of the Middle East, equivalent to 11 per cent of the regional GDP by 2030.

The most significan­t relative gains in the region are expected in the UAE where AI is expected to contribute almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2030, which is equivalent to $96 billion as the global economy stands to claim a contributi­on of $15.7 trillion, the PwC research said.

“The UAE is followed by Saudi Arabia [12.4 per cent], the ‘GCC4’ [Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar; 8.2 per cent] and then Egypt [7.7 per cent],” the survey by PwC Middle East said.

The annual growth in AI contributi­on will be 33.5 per cent in the UAE during 2018-30, Saudi Arabia 31.3 per cent, the GCC4 28.8 per cent, and Egypt 25.5 per cent.

Richard Boxshall, senior economist at PwC Middle East, said in the wake of the fourth industrial revolution, the impact on productivi­ty alone would be transforma­tional and disruptive for a region like the Middle East which faces weak productivi­ty levels. “Investment in AI technologi­es could strategica­lly position the region for the years to come and help it move away from its reliance on oil.”

The report by McKinsey& Company’s said automation’s potential varies substantia­lly across industries.

Sectors like manufactur­ing, transporta­tion and warehousin­g where routine tasks are common have a high potential for automation, whereas sectors where more human interactio­n is required, including the arts, entertainm­ent, recreation, healthcare and education, have a lower potential to be automated — ranging from 29 to 37 per cent.

“For policymake­rs and government­s in the region, there is a critical link between displaceme­nt by automation and lowto-medium levels of education and experience,” said the report.

“In a region where 57 per cent of the current employed workforce has not completed a high school education, automation poses a real risk. The automation potential more than halves, falling to nearly 22 per cent, for employees holding bachelor or graduate degrees.”

 ?? KHALEEJ TIMES GRAPHIC • SOURCES: MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE, OXFORD ECONOMIC FORECASTS, EMSI DATABASE, US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS ??
KHALEEJ TIMES GRAPHIC • SOURCES: MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE, OXFORD ECONOMIC FORECASTS, EMSI DATABASE, US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

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