Italy has voted for change but who will be the leader?

After nearly a decade of economic hardship and waves of migrants landing on its shores, Italy clearly voted for change in its national elections on Sunday, but what kind of change would emerge is far from clear. The big winners were two parties new to the national front and far distant in philosophy: The populist Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League, a right wing anti-immigration party. The M5S says it will bring transparency to Italy’s ossified system, while the League vows to stop and even deport immigrants. Both have expressed Eurosceptic sentiments, and have also been unable to articulate core values on a range of issues.

And though the ruling Democratic Party (PD) says it helped breathe life back into Italy’s moribund economy, voters snubbed it and its controversial leader Matteo Renzi, the former prime minister, whose bulldozer tactics alienated many, even many within his own party.

Even Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s former prime minister, has entered the wild fray with his Forza Italia party gaining enough votes to form a coalition with the League and others to represent the largest bloc of parliament.

However, no party has acquired the critical 40 per cent share needed to govern alone. Now, negotiations led by President Sergio Mattarella will follow as the country patches together a coalition, which sure looks like a long, arduous process. Giorgio Galli, a distinguished political scientist, historian, author and former professor of the History of Political Thought at the University of Milan, says Sunday’s result “was the sign of a deep, profound will for change”.

“This is especially true in the South where they feel impoverished by an economic crisis that still exists,” says Galli. “During the election campaign, the PD kept saying the crisis is over, but that is not the picture people see in their everyday lives, even among the middle class. The PD denied reality.”

And it was the PD that took the biggest hit, garnering less than 20 per cent of the vote, its poorest showing in history.

“I don’t know if they will now go into opposition or restructure so they can play a lead role in the new government,” says Galli. “But they must change. They have offered no new innovation or new resources (for economic recovery), only measures based on the past.”

Berlusconi, too, was snubbed. With fewer votes than the League, his Forza Italia would be a junior partner in a mooted rightwing coalition.“People voted for (League leader Matteo) Salvini because he represents something new — Berlusconi represents the past and the old,” Galli says.

With horse-trading about to begin in an attempt to form a functioning government, Galli says it’s too early to say what the combination could be. Even though M5S claimed the most seats by any single party, it has less than onethird of the votes. “They will have to build bridges beyond their electorate.”

One proposal that likely brought the M5S votes was a promise of basic income from the government for impoverished citizens, a move even some economists say makes sense to fuel the recovery. But getting that approved could test the abilities of the inexpert party. And though they need cooperation, their initial reaction after the election was barely conciliatory.

“Nobody will be able to govern without the Five Star Movement,” said senior party member Riccardo Fraccaro after the election. “We will assume the responsibility to build this government, but in a different way, talking with all the parties about what this country needs.”

The party previously and repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition with other parties, only adding to the uncertainty over what happens next.

Yet they should not debate for too long. Galli notes skittish financial markets will likely add additional pressure.

The uncertainty also has the wider European Union on edge. After seeing off populist movements in France and Germany, the EU now faces one in Italy, the alliance’s third-largest economy. Even staid and steady Germany took six months to form a coalition government after a rightwing surge last fall, the longest it went without a government since the World War II. With that in mind, some wonder how long would it take for Italy.

The impact will likely take weeks or even months to gauge, but the Press within and outside the country is already expressing alarm.

The impact will likely take weeks or even months to gauge, but the Press within and outside the country is already expressing alarm.

The front-page headline on the first edition of La Stampa newspaper asserted M5S leader “Di Maio wins, Italy ungovernable”. France’s Le Monde newspaper led with “No majority emerges, anti-European parties do very well”, while Germany’s Die Welt noted “Italy’s unsettling flirt with anarchy” in a headline on its front page.

Yet Galli sees it as a much-needed opportunity to clean the house and get Italy moving. “The political system was disintegrating,” he says. “The M5S has the opportunity to build bridges and the PD must face the new reality. It is necessary to build a large consensus.”

Until then, current Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni will continue to head the country. The new parliament will meet for the first time on March 23. Expect a lot more fireworks. — Jon Van Housen and Mariella Radaelli are editors at the Luminosity Italia news agency in Milan