Kim has best chance for peace, he musn’t blow it
If US President Trump reduces involvement in the Korean Peninsula, North Korea will be left high and dry
North Korea appears to be back to its old tricks. In its latest announcement, the North Korean regime cancelled a meeting with South Korea and threatened to withdraw from the upcoming summit with President Trump to be held on June 12.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted vice foreign minister Kim Kye-gwan stating that if the US “corners us and unilaterally demands we give up nuclear weapons we will no longer have an interest in talks and will have to reconsider whether we will accept the upcoming DPRK-US summit.” He issued a sharp rebuff to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s promises of economic benefits and American investment in North Korea if the regime commits to denuclearisation: “The US is talking about giving us economic rewards and benefits when we give up nuclear weapons. We have never built economies expecting things from the US and will never do such a deal in the future.”
The regime also ratcheted up its rhetoric against the US breaking with the unusual bonhomie between the two countries since Trump accepted Kim Jon-Un’s invitation for a meeting. KCNA proclaimed “Trump will remain as failed leader if he follows in the footsteps of the previous US presidents.”
The White House has responded with caution so far stating that it will “look at what North Korea has said independently, and continue to coordinate closely with our allies.” US military drills with South Korea — the apparent justification for North Korea’s U-turn despite its knowledge of the drills for some time — will continue according to the South Korean government.
None of this should be surprising. North Korea never intended to denuclearise – certainly not in the sense understood by the Americans. Its carefully crafted statements merely expressed support for global nuclear disarmament and contained vague promises. This is obvious from the statement by Han Tae-song, North Korea’s ambassador to the UN, at his speech to the Conference on Disarmament on May 14: “Discontinuation of nuclear tests and follow up measures are an important process for global disarmament and DPRK will join international disarmament efforts for a total ban on nuclear tests.”
The North Korean regime is well aware that the US and other nuclear weapon states are unlikely to ever give up their own nuclear arsenals. Hence, North Korea’s promises about supporting global denuclearisation
Kim might have bitten off more than he can chew with President Trump. If Trump tires of Kim’s antics and he is handed over to China and Russia, Kim will face tougher foes. President Xi’s disdain for Kim was evident from televised images of their meeting.
are costless as they are unlikely to ever attain fruition. In other words, North Korea was always merely engaging in cheap-talk.
So, where do we go from here? It is possible that the suspension of talks with South Korea is merely sabre-rattling and Kim will go ahead with the summit? Kim has more to gain from the summit than President Trump. It confers him with a legitimacy and stature that he never possessed on the international stage. More importantly, it will enhance his standing within North Korea and play well to the regime’s narrative of racial pride and Korean exceptionalism.
The American position is different. There are no good options: a military strike is dangerous and risks tens of thousands of lives being sacrificed — primarily in South Korea where millions of people are within striking range of North Korean weapons. Some hawks have advocated an overwhelming surprise attack designed to take out nuclear facilities and Kim’s regime. This ignores the reality that North Korean military strategy is likely to be built on surviving a first strike and possessing sufficient capability to inflict significant casualties in retaliation. This will be via preservation of both artillery units and mobile missile strike capabilities in clandestine sites. Even with high quality intelligence assessments, the possibility of significant number of civilian lives being lost cannot be ruled out because it may be impossible to eliminate all chances of North Korean retaliation. Any US president must weigh this risk against the massive political cost domestically if things go wrong. In addition, the loss of civilian lives will bring condemnation by allies and others internationally. Even ruling out a sudden crippling strike, more limited military strikes against nuclear facilities also carry unacceptably high risks.
Setting aside the military option, Kim’s shenanigans may provoke an unexpected response from the unpredictable President Trump. Just as his abrupt decision to meet with Kim was surprising, what if Trump decides to turn his back on Kim after calculating that denuclearisation is unlikely? Kim’s recent actions also belie the prospects of a Nobel prize or any political gains to Trump from a summit.
This scenario is not impossible. President Trump’s main plank has always been America-First, and he has been reluctant to spend US resources overseas. Specifically, he has been critical of the cost of keeping US troops in South Korea and railed against countries for not paying for US military protection.
Moreover, there is no direct threat to the US from North Korea — Kim has no reason to attack if the US ignores him. If Trump walks and the US reduces its involvement in the Korean Peninsula, Kim will be left high and dry. Trump might pass the buck for Kim on to other countries that have more at stake — particularly China and Russia. Trump knows that a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons presents more proximate challenges for presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin than to the US. To be sure, Japan and South Korea are unlikely to be happy with such an outcome, but Trump has put American interests first over the pleas of close allies in the past. He might abandon South Korea and Japan in favour of US interests.
Kim might have bitten off more than he can chew with President Trump. If Trump tires of Kim’s antics and he is handed over to China and Russia, Kim will face tougher foes. President Xi’s disdain for Kim was evident from televised images of their meeting. The “deranged dotard” might then appear to be softer than Messrs Xi and Putin. Kim’s latest gambit might come back to hurt him. Sandeep Gopalan is the pro vice-chancellor for academic innovation and professor of law at Deakin University