Modi is in election mode, attacks on opposition prove it

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is addressing rallies almost daily. His aggressive, hyperbolic attacks on opposition parties leave no doubt he is election mode. He is looking not at this December’s assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Mizoram, but to the parliamentary poll due by May 2019. The daily rallies by both Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief Amit Shah and the big developments due in September-October — the likelihood of Kashmir getting its first ever Hindu chief minister, and a verdict on the disputed land in Ayodhya where a Ram temple is proposed — point to the possibility of the parliamentary poll in November-December. And while Modi and Shah look to capitalise on the opposition unity that remains elusive (they are also trying to avoid a worsening economy due to the rising price of crude oil and the falling rupee), they face a problem within: dissidence from current parliamentarians, half of whom Modi and Shah plan to drop in the next election.

By his own whimsical rule that colleagues over 75 years should retire from active politics, Modi in 2014 sidelined party stalwarts like former deputy PM LK Advani, former BJP chief Murli Manohar Joshi and former finance minister Yashwant Sinha, relegating them to an impotent Margdarshak Mandal (advisory panel) that the PM has never asked from or listened to. Advani or Joshi will almost certainly not be asked to contest the next parliamentary election. This will no doubt irk Advani, seeing as Malaysia recently elected an even older Mahathir Mohamad (93) as its PM.

Fielding those who have left the BJP is out of the question, like Yashwant Sinha or two-time Rajya Sabha member Chandan Mitra, who had contested and lost the 2014 Lok Sabha poll from Hooghly in Bengal, but left the party this week. Both were basically long sidelined due to their proximity to Advani.

But the most controversy will gather around the “retirement” in the next election of Sushma Swaraj, another person who has long been close to Advani and who has spent the last four years as India’s most ineffective External Affairs Minister ever. All important diplomacy is handled by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and Sushma has been reduced to an emergency control room for Non-Resident Indians (NRIs). Recently she was tangled in controversy after an administrative action by her ministry against a passport officer in Lucknow (who had been inappropriately intrusive into a couple that had applied for passports); she was viciously trolled by BJP cheerleaders on social media.

Modi did not come to her rescue, and instead lauded his army of internet supporters for their “expression”. Clearly, he has no use for her any longer.

Others who will be departing active politics include Uma Bharti, a total dud as a minister whose only utility is as a rabble-rouser; former union ministers Shanta Kumar (of Himachal

Pradesh) and Major-General BC Khanduri (of

Uttarakhand) due to their age, despite their contribution to the party’s administrative brainstrust — whose absence is on vivid display in Modi’s Council of Ministers.

But besides Sushma — and that too, only in the media — none of this will be cause for consternation in the party. What will matter will be the reaction of sitting Members of Parliament, half of whom are to be reportedly dropped. Vernacular newspaper reports suggest that Modi and Shah are keen to instead field ministers in BJP-run state governments in the next election. This might be justified as a way to ward off anti-incumbency – by dropping parliamentarians whose performance has been lacklustre – and also promoting mobility within the party to keep it fresh, dynamic and hungry.

However, it has led to panic among sitting MPs, even those who may be renominated, since there is uncertainty about who will be allowed to return. At the moment they are all sitting quiet, but the moment ticket distribution is announced, there will be turmoil. It may even turn out to be the biggest election-time challenge that Modi and Shah face, because this turmoil will be most pronounced at the local level. Sitting MPs that are rejected will seek out other parties to join and contest from – and in a place like Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP won 71 seats in 2014, a quarter of their total tally, the opposition is sure to exploit such a development. The turmoil will also be manifest in the subversion of official candidates.

This is why, talk about Modi failing to get a majority or even ending up as the single largest party by a whisker in the next election is not linked to any great attribute of the opposition parties or leaders. The most the opposition can do is unite in order to dent the BJP’s prospects of returning to power. If it does not return, it will be because of selfinflicted wounds. Perhaps that is why Modi is nowadays more than ever in attack mode. It is the fight of his life, and the only way he can keep his flock intact is by going all-out in offense, ensuring that the next election will be action-packed.

This is why, talk about Modi failing to get a majority or even ending up as the single largest party by a whisker is not linked to any great attribute of the opposition parties or leaders