Trump should use diplomacy to rein in a rebellious Iran

The war of words between Washington and Tehran has reached an ‘all-caps’ high with US President Donald Trump warning Iranian President Hassan Rouhani — in not so pleasant of terms — not to threaten the US or to face the consequences. This came just hours after Rouhani declared that hostile policies towards Tehran could lead to “the mother of all wars”. The escalation of tension follows an online American campaign to pressure Iran to end its nuclear programme and support for terrorist groups. As much as Iran is to be blamed for its recalcitrant stance, Trump could risk playing into the hands of Tehran with his verbose tweets and style. Iran is known to reciprocate hostile acts, irrespective of their sources. If Washington actively bats for a regime change, Tehran could intensify proxy attacks on American interests in the region. An American cyberattack would beget an Iranian counterattack. An Iranian administration adept at handling economic sanctions in the light of American sanctions could be a hard nut to crack for Washington. Though American sanctions expected later in the year could weaken the regime further, Tehran could take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding the oil markets, given the reduction of exports from Venezuela.

The US should, therefore, avoid rhetoric that could incite reaction from Iran. This could prove detrimental to the region as well as the whole world. In Mike Pompeo, Trump has a hawk who has toyed with the idea of military action against Iran, while at the same time upholding an interest in diplomacy. His ‘penchant’ for diplomacy should be capitalised in the region as well. With Europe and the Arab region concerned about Iran’s weapons proliferation — especially supply to the Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, and to the Houthis in Yemen — Washington should look at pursuing a joint plan with international partners to tackle Iran’s destructive behaviour. The challenge for the US is to rein in a rebellious Iran, diplomatically.