5 biggest post-election challenges for country

Security & Extremism

Security has dramatically improved across Pakistan following a crackdown on militant groups in recent years. But analysts have long warned that Pakistan is not tackling the root causes of extremism, and militants can still carry out spectacular attacks. Analysts have warned that insurgents may be regrouping and seeking to reassert themselves after years of setbacks.

Economy

Pakistan’s next government faces growing fears of a balance of payments crisis, with speculation mounting it will have to seek its second bailout in five years from the IMF. The central bank is burning through foreign exchange reserves and devaluing the rupee, including another five per cent dive this month, in a bid to bridge a widening trade deficit. The economy has also been stung by higher oil prices. Meanwhile, meagre exports such as textiles have taken a hit from cheaper products by regional competitors. The winner of the election will have “limited time” to act, Fitch ratings agency warned earlier this month.

Population

Conservative Pakistan, with its limited family planning, has one of the highest birth rates in Asia at around three children per woman, according to the World Bank and government figures.

That has led to a five-fold increase of the population since 1960, now touching 207 million, draft results from last year’s census show. The boom is negating hard-won economic and social progress in the developing country, experts have warned. Analysts say unless more is done to slow growth, the country’s natural resources — particularly drinking water — will not be enough to support the population.

Water crisis

Pakistan is on the verge of an ecological disaster if authorities do not urgently address looming water shortages, experts say. Official estimates show that by 2025 the country will be facing an “absolute scarcity” of water, with less than 500 cubic metres available per person — just one-third of the water available in parched Somalia, according to the UN.

Pakistan has massive Himalayan glaciers, rivers, monsoon rains and floods — but just three major water storage basins, compared with more than a thousand in South Africa or Canada.

As such, surplus water is quickly lost. Political initiative will be essential to building infrastructure to reverse the course of the impending crisis.

Civil-military ties

Pakistan has spent roughly half its nearly 71-year history under military rule, and the imbalance of power in between civilian governments and the armed forces has long been seen as an impediment to democracy and progress. Hope surged in 2013 as the country saw its first-ever transition of power from one democratically-elected government to another.

But since then, experts have warned of a “creeping coup”, fuelled by tensions between the generals and the government of Nawaz Sharif. The next government will be tasked with meeting the country’s challenges without upsetting this delicate balance of power. —