Syria needs allies to rise from the ruins

During World War II, the main cities in Germany — Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Kiel and Dresden were completely ruined. The allied forces responded to the barbarity of the Nazis with carpet bombing that caused destruction of 80 per cent of Germany’s historic buildings.

Hell broke loose in Germany, but today, Germany is one of the most visited countries in Europe with its beautiful monuments and all the history it holds. The country rose like a Phoenix to prove that what seemed lost was just a prelude to a new beginning.

Syria has a similar story to tell. What is left after seven years of raging war is a catalogue of massive destruction, more severe in certain areas, with more than 400,000 estimated deaths and over half the population driven from their homes in what is the largest refugee crisis since World War II.

According to the World Bank, war has damaged 20 per cent of the housing (not counting the infrastructure facilities). UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura has estimated that the country would need about $250 billion for reconstruction, even as Syrian officials claim that the cost of rebuilding could range between $200 and $500 billion.

While the war is not over yet and no city is immune to attacks, everyone agrees that it is necessary to start the process of reconstruction.

Thousands of industrial facilities have been destroyed by the war. Any help to Syria’s struggling economy necessitates reconstruction efforts to help build the economy. Factories need to be rebuilt, and agricultural land has to be made cultivable. A World Bank report stated that during the four years of conflict, an average of 538,000 job opportunities have been destroyed annually.

Today the country is in tatters. The fact that nearly five million Syrians are refugees in other countries, and that nine million Syrians are jobless in the country only add to the woes. According to a US research centre, Syrian exports have shrunk by 80 per cent in real value between

2010 and 2015, and this can be attributed to the decline in oil exports as oil wells are under the control of Daesh.

Now that major cities that have oil are liberated, Russia will have a leading role in this area as it already has mutual agreements with the Syrian government in the fields of oil and gas.

Iranian and Chinese companies will have their share in the reconstruction. The same goes for Lebanon, too, as it has remained officially neutral vis-à-vis the Syrian conflict since 2011 and hence will be welcomed unlike the Nato countries, more specifically France whom the Syrian government holds accountable for supporting and backing the opposition.

Lebanon has a central role to play in its ability to offer the platform for companies and labour. It is rather easy for the Syrian refugees to return to their country from Lebanon because of the geographical proximity. Lebanon is connected to Syria by roads and also has a maritime route through the ports of Tripoli and Beirut. In addition, Lebanon has sufficient knowledge and experience in several sectors and contributes to the Syrian education and health sectors.

Seven Lebanese banks have been able to enter the Syrian markets in partnership with local shareholders.

Several sectors have suffered badly from the war. Some of the pertinent ones include: real estate (around $112 billion losses), industrial sectors ( $75 billion losses), transport and communications (down $18 billion) and agriculture ($15 billion losses). Companies are ready to invest in these sectors, but unless the regime agrees to a political transition, international institutions, western powers and neighbouring countries will not pay for reconstruction. And the truth is that Russia and Iran will not be able to bear the burden of the reconstruction by themselves.

According to the Syrian media, Syrian businessmen close to the regime such as Samir Foz and Mazen Al Tarazi have already invested in a major real estate project launched in the South of Damascus by the end of 2016. But Syria needs international monitors to keep the reconstruction process under check.

Lebanon remained officially neutral vis-à-vis the Syrian conflict and hence will be welcomed unlike the Nato countries.