Water wars over the Tigris and Euphrates

There are no winners in the water game. If governments play it fair, not only they will secure the population but themselves from conflicts that the region can be spared from

An African proverb says: “A river which forgets its source, will dry up”. Iraq will soon be deprived of 40 to 45 per cent of its water if the construction of the Ilisu Turkish Tiger Dam located 100km from Iraq’s border is pursued.

Turkey had initially announced it would allow 600 billion cubic meters of water into Iraq, but Iraqi authorities demanded more as the cities on the edge of the Tigris alone require 90 billion cubic meters of water, forcing Ankara to concede to this demand.

However, more dams mean increasing tensions among countries in the region.

While Turkey assures that construction of these dams will create more job opportunities, others claim that such dams aim to crush Kurdish political aspirations and will force people to leave rural areas and therefore secure Turkey’s borders.

In the last 30 years, Ankara has built around 22 dams on the Tigris and Euphrates. And Iraq, the ‘Land between the two Rivers’ has witnessed shrinking rivers due to dams in Turkey, Syria and Iran.

The consequences are catastrophic and today the water crisis is affecting the whole country with Basra being the most affected.

Located on the Shatt Al Arab between Kuwait and Iran, Basra is Iraq’s main port, and is also the city that is most affected by the water crisis.

Seasonal rainfall has dropped with salinity of water from the nearby Gulf region increasing. The region, once of the most fertile in Iran, is soon turning into a desert. The situation is becoming worse and the government is failing to respond to the needs of the people, not only in water shortage but also other basic services such as electricity and infrastructural facilities.

The water crisis also means not just a collapse in fisheries and environmental destruction but also conflict, a scenario where people will be fighting over water more than over oil. In a planet where two-thirds of its surface is covered with water, some countries are running out of water. This could spark a more serious crisis than the refugee problem the world is facing now.

The economy of Iraq depends on its water as 80 per cent of it is needed for agriculture and sheep production which, in turn, provides more than a third of the population its source of income.

Since 2003, the mismanagement within Iraq’s interior and the agriculture ministries has contributed to the rise in poverty among rural populations forcing people to abandon their fields and search for jobs in cities.

But Iraq needs agriculture to recover economically and this could take years, as it is a complex issue related in big part to water. It also involves cleaning up of mines and restoring farm compounds damaged by airstrikes.

The turnover trade between Iraq and Turkey that amounts to billions of dollars per year, could be a card (although a risky one) that Bagdad can play by putting pressure on Turkey to assert its legitimate rights to water.

Transparency is the key because if there is no shared interpretation of international water law, there is a risk that Turkey can use water as a pressure commodity to bargain with.

There are no winners in the water game. If governments play it fair, not only they will secure the population but themselves from conflicts that the region can be spared of. Diplomats must prove their skills in tackling such sensitive subjects.

Both Turkey and Iraq need stability. And Iraq should play its part by modernising outdated water and agricultural practices. Money should be invested in replacing irrigation channels and the agriculture ministry must launch campaigns and train farmers to use new crops and advanced techniques that can prevent the misuse of water. Christiane Waked is a risk analyst. She is the former Press Attaché of the French Embassy to the UAE, and has worked as linguist and analyst in the French Interior Ministry