Oil demand to top 100M bpd

london — World oil consumption will top 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in the next three months, putting upward pressure on prices, although emerging market crises and trade disputes could dent this demand, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

The Paris-based IEA maintained its forecast of strong growth in global oil demand this year of 1.4 million bpd and another 1.5 million bpd in 2019, unchanged from its previous projection.

“Things are tightening up,” the agency that advises Western governments on energy policy said in its monthly report. “The price range for Brent of $70-$80 per barrel in place since April could be tested.”

Benchmark Brent crude oil was down 65 cents a barrel at $79.09 by 1200GMT on Thursday. US light crude fell $1.15 to a low of $69.22 a barrel and was last at $69.50, down 87 cents.

US sanctions on Iran’s energy industry, which come into force in November, have already cut supply back to two-year lows, while falling Venezuelan output and unplanned outages elsewhere will also keep the balance between supply and demand tight, the IEA said.

But it said rising demand could also be checked. “As we move into 2019, a possible risk to our fore-

A possible risk to our forecast lies in some key emerging economies, partly due to currency depreciations versus the US dollar

International Energy Agency

cast lies in some key emerging economies, partly due to currency depreciations versus the US dollar raising the cost of imported energy. In addition, there is a risk to growth from an escalation of trade disputes,” the agency said.

The United States and China have imposed a series of tariffs on each

other’s goods since May that have unnerved equity markets, while a rising US dollar has put emerging market currencies under pressure, raising the energy bill for some of the world’s largest oil importers.

Demand from nations not in the OECD group of industrialised countries, led by China and India, is expected to rise by 1.1 million bpd to 51.6 million bpd this year and by 1.2 million bpd to 52.8 million bpd next year, the IEA said.

Global demand will hit a high of 100.3 million bpd in the final quarter of this year, before moderating to 99.3 million bpd in the first quarter of next year, the agency said. —