Nawaz proves he’s a force to contend with in Pakistan

Verdict strengthens former PM’s stand that he was wrongly convicted of corruption on flimsy evidence

In a dramatic turn of events, the Islamabad High Court on Wednesday suspended prison sentences awarded to disqualified Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam Nawaz, and son-in-law Captain (retired) Safdar in the landmark Avenfield corruption case.

A two-member bench heard the convicts’ appeal against the July 6 accountability court verdict - which sentenced them to prison and fines and ruled that the sentence would remain suspended until the final judgment on their appeals.

Nawaz was given 10 years for owning assets beyond his means plus one year for not cooperating with the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). Maryam was handed seven years for abetment and one for non-cooperation. Safdar got only one year, also for not cooperating with NAB.

While suspending the sentence, Justice Athar Minallah observed that “NAB, after conducting thorough investigation, could not bring any evidence of Nawaz Sharif’s ownership of the Avenfield apartments,” potentially turning the tide in a case that was based largely on circumstantial and secondary evidence to begin with.

And since the appeal primarily focused on the same evidence on which the accountability court sent the three to prison, Wednesday’s development opens a number of potholes for the government as well as the judiciary as the conviction itself comes under fresh legal scrutiny.

Legal experts blame the NAB for mishandling the case. The accountability court found Nawaz guilty of owning more assets than he could afford on July 6, but still could not establish corruption on his part. NAB did not challenge this observation.

And when the Sharifs appealed against the conviction and the sentence, the burden of proof shifted to the prosecution.

Now, the verdict strengthens Nawaz’s position that he was wrongly convicted of corruption on flimsy evidence. And, though it is too early to tell, if the conviction too is overturned the country’s political situation will change very quickly.

Nawaz, in that case, will take his grievances - disqualification, humiliation, jail, loss of wife - to the people, picking up just where he left but with a lot more initiative. His pre-arrest theory, that a grand military-judiciary conspiracy removed him to make way for Imran Khan’s PTI, will resonate even more loudly, especially in the conservative Press. He will establish himself as a political victim even though he was tried for money laundering.

And while Nawaz faces two more references, Maryam will be in the clear and free to resume her political career. Only now - in case, again, the sentence is annulled - she would posture as the brave daughter punished because of her father and wrongly incarcerated even as her mother breathed her last so far away.

Their strategy would be designed to put the judiciary in a bad light and implicate it, at least in the eyes of the public, in an effort to destabilise a sitting government. And in case the conviction is maintained, they would simply accuse the judiciary of blatant double standards, as usual.

PML-N leaders are still formulating their core strategy, but it’s already clear that the Opposition in the House will be a lot more charged. Early chatter in Islamabad also suggests a combined opposition march on the capital, putting yet more pressure on the government as it struggles to find its feet.

Any clashes, which are likely in case of a mass mobilisation, will not just corner the government politically but also threaten an investor exodus and send the equity market through the floor once again.

Already the record deficit, almost $100b debt, desperate need for a bailout

and the government’s inability to present a clear plan has kept investors edgy and the market choppy. And the last thing the economy needs is a replay of Nawaz’s agitation leading to his arrest, when political turmoil squeezed a good 20pc out of the market in around a year-and-a-half.

The PTI administration dismisses PML-N’s respite as “temporary”. And the NAB has already decided to appeal before the Supreme Court of Pakistan. But images of the Sharifs walking out of Adiala Jail, and thousands gathering to welcome them at their large family estate in Lahore, have left the government and the Bureau with some egg on their faces.

Going forward, even if the Sharifs are sent packing again, latest events have put a question mark on the cases against them. PML-N, for its part, has established itself as an anti-establishment party; a very different entity from the right-of-centre, pro-military, conservative flag bearer of the last two decades. And whether or not Nawaz remains free, he has proved that he can keep his party, and its loyalty to him, intact.

PML-N leaders are still formulating their core strategy, but it’s already clear that the Opposition in the house will be a lot more charged