Merkel is on the ropes, she should make a graceful exit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is among the most trusted leaders in the world, yet at home she seems to be in the twilight of a remarkable career. The quiet chemistry student raised in East Germany who surprised the experts and prevailed over so many just suffered a defeat in her own party as long-time ally Volker Kauder was ousted as caucus leader. The setback has followed last year’s federal election that brought about the worst result for her party, Christian Democrats, since 1949, and consequently led to the longest negotiation recorded in modern German history to form a governing coalition.

Ironically, her decline comes as her international repute is fairly strong and secure. According to a Pew Research report, Merkel is now the most trusted leader in the world. Based on a survey in 25 nations, the researchers found that some 52 per cent of respondents trust her to do the right thing. In comparison, just 27 per cent said the same about US President Donald Trump.

But votes at home matter more than the perceptions abroad. Whether it is the voter fatigue kicking in as Merkel has been a leader for half a generation or the ongoing refugee crisis that has caused deep rifts across Europe, the German leader’s popularity is waning and has taken a severe hit over the past year.

Dan Hough, a professor at the University of Sussex specialising in German politics and parties, agrees that Merkel is near the end of her tenure.

“That shouldn’t surprise anyone,” he says. “She has been in power for over a decade. In democratic states that is a very long time, so it is perfectly normal to be asking about who comes next.”

Post-WWII German leaders have had a tradition of longevity. Konrad Adenauer served for 14 years and Helmut Kohl clung to power for 16, for many in Germany far too long. Merkel, who played a role in his downfall, has said she doesn’t want to do the same and stay past her usefulness. When the time comes, she wants to exit office gracefully and not as “a half-dead wreck”, as she once put it.

But Charlie Lees, Professor of Politics and Dean of the College of Business, Government and Law at Flinders University in Adelaide, notes that graceful exits are almost unknown in politics.

“It’s a truism of politics that all political careers end in failure,” says Lees. “Most politicians fail to leave office when they are at the height of their powers and reputation. Merkel may go soon if she could be sure of protecting her legacy through a managed succession. Unfortunately for her, this looks less likely than a year ago.”

Her possible inability to manage an exit is due to increased discord in Germany, and indeed the world at large, says Lees. “Political parties are losing their coherence and discipline everywhere in the face of declining deference and the role of social media,” he notes. “Germany is no exception.”

Last year’s federal elections laid bare the problem as the openly rightwing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won more than 12 per cent of the vote and gained 94 seats in the Bundestag, its first ever ascension to Germany’s parliament. Five months of political deadlock followed as the previous “Grand Coalition” of the Christian Democrats, Christian Social Union and Free Democratic Party also began to show fundamental cracks.

“The rise of the AfD represents a significant shock to the political status quo,” says Lees. “However, it remains to be seen if this is an historic juncture. If the AfD were to repeat or even improve on its 2017 Bundestag election performance in 2021, then we would say with more certainty that a sea change has taken place.”

Part of voter dissatisfaction stems from Merkel’s immigration stance as Germany agreed to accept more than a million refugees in 2015 at the height of the influx into Europe. The chancellor continued to advocate a humanitarian stance in the face of growing opposition.

Only history will judge whether it was a fatal mistake, says Professor Hough. “What I would say is ‘did she have any real choice?’ Could she have

The chemistry student from East Germany certainly scaled great heights and will be remembered as one of the last gracious leaders in a fractious world.

turned the refugees back at the German border? No and no. In reality she didn’t have that many cards to play,” he says.

Professor Lees adds that “Merkel’s refugee policies were in the best traditions of the Federal Republic but unfortunately for her, it created a rift between her and conservative voters.

“However, she would say that sometimes you have to do the right thing, not just what is popular. History will probably exonerate her on this.”

Yet as her power wanes, there is still respect for her efforts. “There is some sadness, but that will come more once she has gone,” says Hough. “There is certainly a stronger feeling that she’s coming to the end. And she knows it.”

For many around the world, her unassuming, steady influence will be missed when her time is over. The chemistry student from East Germany certainly scaled great heights and could be remembered as one of the last gracious leaders in an increasingly fractious world.