IMF cuts world growth forecasts on tariff war
nusa dua — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, saying that the US-China trade war was taking a toll and emerging markets were struggling with tighter liquidity and capital outflows.
The new forecasts, released on the Indonesian resort island of Bali where the IMF and World Bank annual meetings are getting underway, show that a burst of strong growth, fuelled partly by US tax cuts and rising demand for imports, was starting to wane.
The IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook it was now predicting 3.7 per cent global growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9 per cent growth for both years.
The downgrade reflects a confluence of factors, including the introduction of import tariffs between the United States and China, weaker performances by eurozone countries, Britain and Japan, and rising interest rates that are pressuring some emerging markets with capital outflows, notably Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia and Mexico.
“US growth will decline once parts of its fiscal stimulus go into reverse,” IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said in a statement. “Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 US growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China’s retaliation.” With much of the US-China tariff war’s impact to be felt next year, the Fund cut its 2019 US growth forecast to 2.5 per cent from 2.7 per cent previously, while it cut China’s 2019 growth forecast to 6.2 per cent from 6.4 per cent. It left 2018 growth forecasts for the two countries unchanged at 2.9 per cent for the United States and 6.6 per cent for China.
Obstfeld said he was not concerned about the Chinese government’s ability to defend its currency against further weakening but told a news conference that Beijing would face a “balancing act” between actions to shore up growth and ensuring financial stability. If China and the United States were to resolve their trade differences, it “would be a significant upside to the forecast.”
The eurozone’s 2018 growth forecast was cut to 2.0 per cent from 2.2 per cent previously, with Germany particularly hard hit by a drop in manufacturing orders and trade volumes. Obstfeld said the IMF does not see a generalised pullback from emerging markets, nor contagion that will spill over to those emerging economies.
3.7% Global growth in 2018 and 2019 down from July forecast of 3.9%