Exit polls point to losses for BJP in Indian states
new delhi — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party is likely to lose two heartland states while a third is too close to call, exit polls showed on Friday in the final test of popularity before a national election due by May next year.
Surveys broadcast at the end of voting for five state assemblies showed the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trailing behind the rival Congress party in some areas.
The actual votes will be counted on Tuesday, and exit polls have been wrong in the past, partly because of the sheer scale of Indian elections involving millions of votes.
Still, nearly all the polls showed that the Congress
— led by Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family — will win a clear majority in western Rajasthan state and scrape through in eastern Chhattisgarh, according a survey of surveys pulled together by NDTV.
In Madhya Pradesh, the same polls suggested the BJP and the Congress were locked in a fight down to the wire. The combined surveys showed the BJP winning 110 seats, the Congress 108, and smaller groups 12 in the 230-member house. To rule, a party requires 116 seats.
The three states are part of the northern Hindi belt, a bastion of the ruling party.
“The BJP is struggling everywhere, for all its bravado,” said Juhi Singh, a spokesman of the regional Samajwadi Party.
Modi, who came to power with a sweeping majority in 2014, has been praised for improving governance and cutting some red tape, but has been criticised for failing to create enough jobs for the thousands of young people entering the jobs market every month. He has also faced criticism for allowing hardliners in his party to undermine India’s secular foundations. Foreign investors who largely remain bullish on India’s long-term prospects, are watching the state polls closely for clues to the national vote.
“The result would be consistent with what most polls are showing: that we are heading for hung parliament,” said Jan Dehn, head of research at emerging markets fund manager Ashmore. —
72.65% Voting recorded in Rajasthan assembly elections
new delhi — Exit polls on Friday predicted a tight finish between the BJP and the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and a win for the Congress in Rajasthan.
They also predicted that the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana will retain power.
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are all ruled by the BJP presently.
While Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat gave 108-128 seats to the BJP and 95-115 to the Congress in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh, India Today-Axis said the saffron party could win 102-120 seats as against 104-122 for the Congress.
However, the Times Now-CNX exit poll predicted a majority for the BJP in MP with 126 seats and gave the Congress a tally of 89 seats. On the other hand, ABP News exit poll said the Congress is likely to get a majority by bagging 126 seats. The BJP, it added, would get 94 seats.
In the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly, exit polls broadcast by Republic-C Voter predicted 35-43 seats for the BJP and 40-50 for the Congress while the News Nation forecast a close race with 38-42 seats for the BJP and 40-44 for the Congress.
Times Now-CNX, however, gave a simple majority to the BJP in Chhattisgarh, saying it may win 46 seats while the opposition Congress may bag 35 seats. ABP News said the BJP may get up to 52 seats against 35 of the Congress.
However, India Today-Axis predicted the Congress is set to end Chief Minister Raman Singh’s 15year old reign by winning anywhere between 55-65 seats. The BJP, it said, may be reduced to 21-31 seats. All the exit polls said the alliance of former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi) and the BSP may win between three and eight seats, which may help him to emerge as a kingmaker in the event of a hung house.
If exit polls differed in their projections for Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, most of them predicted the Congress’ return to power in Rajasthan.
India Today-Axis said the opposition party may win 119-141 out of 199 seats for which elections were held. The BJP, it added, may win 55-72 seats.
Times Now-CNX forecast 105 seats for the Congress and 85 for the BJP.
However, Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat forecast a tighter race between the two parties. It gave the Congress and the BJP 81-101 and 83103 seats respectively.
Exit polls were almost unanimous in predicting that TRS president and Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s gamble of advancing the assembly polls will pay off and he will retain power.
Republic TV and Times Now forecast that his party will 50-65 and 66 seats in the 119-member assembly.
TV9 Telugu and India Today forecast a tally between 75-85 and 75-91 for the ruling party respectively. Some exit polls saw a tighter battle between the TRS and the Congress-TDP combine.
The counting of votes for five states, including Mizoram besides the four states, will be take place on December 11. —
70% Voter turnout in Telangana assembly polls
The result would be consistent with what most polls are showing: that we are heading for hung parliament.
Jan Dehn, head of research at emerging markets fund manager Ashmore