Is Modi ally Amit Shah turning into a liability?
Clearly, the knives are out for Amit Shah, president of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP). He has been silent after BJP’s loss in the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — where it won 62 of the 65 parliamentary seats contested in 2014, a significant chunk of its tally of 283 seats. Shah has a tendency to ride roughshod over party colleagues in service of his mentor, Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even ordinary voters who think the world of their PM regard Shah as thuggish. Even after acquittal he is believed to be behind several deaths, including that of Judge Brijgopal Harkishan Loya, presiding over the Sohrabuddin Sheikh murder case in which Shah was a prime accused. But more than the voters, Muslims or even the Opposition, it is Shah’s own party that dislikes him the most. Thus the recent avalanche of comments by Modi’s most efficient minister, Nitin Gadkari.
Gadkari’s comments could arguably be interpreted as attacks on Modi himself. Before introduction of the reservation bill for Marathas (natives) in Maharashtra recently, Gadkari pointed out that there were no jobs. Ostensibly this was to assuage the Marathas over reservations, but the absence of job creation is the largest anxiety for Modi as he seeks re-election in May. Back in October, Gadkari poohpoohed the 2014 election promise of putting Rs 1.5 million in every Indian’s bank account — Modi’s promise. He has also criticised party spokesperson Sambit Patra for “making controversial remarks”; the Opposition thinks Patra as being overly aggressive, keeping with Modi’s scorched-earth style of politics. Gadkari has also repeatedly said that the party leadership should own up the electoral losses, even as he clarified that he was not speaking about Modi, and that Modi would lead the 2019 campaign.
The clearest sign came when Gadkari gave the Intelligence Bureau’s annual lecture. He repeated that the responsibility for the performance of members of parliament was at the party chief’s door. In remarks that could not have pleased Modi, Gadkari said that it was “important to be polite in daily dealings and value human relationships”. Gadkari declared a liking for the sayings of India’s first PM, Jawaharlal Nehru: “He said India is not a nation but a population”. This is the opposite of Modi, who spent the campaign abusing Nehru and others of the Gandhi family.
Gadkari is a favourite of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, parent organisation of the BJP, and speculation is that he could succeed Modi after the 2019 election if the BJP were to fall short of 200 seats (272 makes a majority) and needed to cobble up a coalition. Given the cavalier way Modi has treated them, the NDA allies will ask for a change of leadership. A couple of allies like N. Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh and Upendra Kushwaha of Bihar have already walked out. The Akali Dal has openly complained about its unattractive ministerial portfolios and how it has been given no governorships. The Shiv Sena has openly abused Modi, borrowing from Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s slogan that chowkidar chor hai
(the watchman is a thief).
Gadkari was the BJP president from 2010 to 2013; he gave way after unproved corruption allegations to Rajnath Singh, who is the current home minister, who gave way to Shah. He is popular in the RSS because he is an efficient ideologue, and has ‘helped’ the RSS for decades. His popularity in his home state Maharashtra grew in the 1990s Shiv Sena-BJP government when he was the public works minister and constructed many a flyover. As surface transport minister, he has been on a tear constructing highways and roads, and developing ports.
Gadkari is secretly backed by much of his party who are unhappy with the way that Modi has turned the government into a one-man show and the party into a two-man outfit. Amit Shah is nowhere near the PM in popularity, and any power he has is because of his proximity to Modi. After the assembly election losses he has been subdued. Hence, he is the first target within the party. Perhaps Shah thinks his boss will protect him — he might feel Modi needs to, given how many secrets Shah holds. However, he also knows that Modi’s career has been built by discarding fellow travellers once their utility passes — just look at the instances of former Gujarat CM Keshubhai Patel, former BJP chief Kushabhau Thakre, former deputy PM LK Advani, or former Gujarat minister Haren Pandya, whose death during a morning walk remains a mystery until today.
Gadkari is secretly backed by much of his party who are unhappy with the way that Modi has turned the government into a one-man show and the party into a two-man outfit.