A tale of tenacity, travail and transition

Immigrants to Europe are likely to play an increasing role as their influence takes root in their new home countries

It is the largest surge in migration on the continent since WWII: Since 2014, more than 1.6 million people have sought refuge in Europe. Nearly 14,000 died along the way. The EU police agency Europol says that more than 10,000 unaccompanied migrant children have disappeared in the last two years, many possible victims of trafficking by organised crime networks.

Europe is in the fifth year of formulating policies and responses to the influx. As the numbers become more clear, they paint a picture of the changing face of the continent. It is the story of incredible human drama and fractured relations between nations that vowed to work together for mutual wellbeing.

Though migration to Europe had been growing since 2011, it surged dramatically in 2015 when more than 1 million arrived by sea, mostly in Greece and Italy, the result of the deepening conflict in Syria. More than half were Syrian, with about a quarter from Afghanistan and 10 per cent from Iraq.

But in 2016, the demographic changed. Italy hit a new record with nearly 200,000 arrivals, many from Nigeria, Eritrea and Guinea. Considered economic migrants, not political refugees, they could still be subject to deportation. Following actions to stem the flow from embarkation points in Libya and other countries, the number of arrivals fell sharply in 2017, but many still attempt the dangerous journey. Last year, refugee arrivals in the EU totaled about 144,000, almost half of them in Spain. So far this year, 6,267 had arrived by the end of January, with Spain again the top recipient at 4,031 of the total. Some 208 have been reported dead or missing along migrant routes so far in 2019.

How to absorb such a large number of desperate people that arrived since 2014 has evolved from emergency response to codified policies, but creating a systemic solution has proven difficult and contentious. The stress has shaken the EU to its core, with immigration response playing a significant role in Brexit, the decline of Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany, the rise of firebrand politician Matteo Salvini in Italy and increasing nationalist sentiment across the continent.

According to figures from EU statistics agency Eurostat, the impact was far from evenly shared. As a ratio of asylum seekers to existing residents, Germany clearly felt the biggest affect with 8,789 asylum seekers for every million of its existing population in 2016. Some 60 per cent of asylum seekers ended up in Germany that year, followed by Italy at 10.1 per cent and France with 6.3 per cent. Austria had 3.3 per cent and the UK was processing 3.2 per cent.

And processing is a crucial term. Once gaining legal asylum or protected status, refugees can settle, look for stable long-term solutions and begin a more normal life. EU countries had a record number of asylum applications in 2015, with nearly 1.26 million applying for the first time, following 562,000 in 2014, according to Eurostat. The numbers include those who applied in several countries. In 2016, there were 1.2 million first-time asylum requests, filed mainly by Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis.

In 2016, EU countries granted protection to about 710,400 people, more than twice the figure of 2015. Some 55 per cent of the total in 2016 were listed as refugees, while 37 per cent were placed in the category of “subsidiary protection,” or those who do not meet the criteria for refugee status but are in danger in their home countries. Another 8 per cent qualified for “authorisation to stay for humanitarian reasons”.

Germany topped the EU in granting protection to the greatest number of people in 2018, some 445,210 positive decisions, three times more than in 2015, followed by Sweden at 69,350, Italy with 35,450, France at 35,170 and Austria with 31,750. Consolidation of a stable life and integration are the challenges moving forward. But as existing citizens raise the alarm about the impact on traditional ways of life and the cost of sustaining new arrivals, a recent study by the Paris School of Economics, or CNRS, found that immigrants actually benefit host nation economies within five years of arrival.

The analysis of 30 years of data from 15 countries in Western Europe found that soon after a spike in migration, the overall strength and sustainability of a country’s economy improves and unemployment rates drop. The study used statistics including per capita GDP and “fiscal balance”, the difference in money spent on public programmes such as welfare and increases in taxes generated by new arrivals.

“Some people say they would like to welcome refugees, but that we cannot afford it,” says Hippolyte d’Albis, an economist CNRS who led the work. “But we have shown that historically it has not been a cost, and that if you do not welcome immigrants, the economy might be worse off.”

Whether the change is welcome or not, it is here. With many European nations facing an aging population and low birth rates, immigrants are likely to have an increasing role in demographics and even culture as their influence takes root in their new home countries.

As existing citizens raise the alarm about the impact on traditional ways of life and the cost of sustaining new arrivals, a recent study found that immigrants actually benefit host nation economies within five years of arrival