Congress faces dissidence, BJP bogged by discipline

Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces strong headwinds as the next parliamentary election looms. The two issues that lost his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) three Hindi-heartland states in December — agrarian distress and the jobs crisis — remain unresolved, as the interim budget presented on February 1 is a case of “too little, too late”. Second, each day brings fresh revelations of rot in the 2015 Rafale fighter jet deal that Modi renegotiated. While its nepotism may not itself sway voters, it takes the edge off of Modi’s claim to being a

chowkidar against corruption; he now sounds like a broken record. The opposition has got its act together, with chief ministers like Mamata Banerjee of Bengal and N Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh giving it back to the BJP as good as they get. Priyanka Gandhi’s first roadshow in Uttar Pradesh’s capital, Lucknow, on Monday had an impressive turn-out and, significantly, it was not blacked out by most TV channels, which over the past five years have cravenly followed government diktat in ignoring the opposition. Though Priyanka may not help the Congress gather more seats in UP, she helps change the narrative — in 2014, Modi was the fresh change voters sought, and in 2019 he seems like an old man out of his depth.

Yet can the Congress party, with its all India presence, give a competitive fight? For there is much within that should trouble it.

In the northeast, where the BJP till a few months back was confident of winning almost all the region’s 25 parliamentary seats — which would have helped compensate for the inevitable losses in UP — it faces decimation because of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill. The Bill, which was passed by the Lok Sabha and on Tuesday was slated for introduction in the Upper House, would grant citizenship to non-Muslims from neighbouring countries. Though it would benefit only 31,000-odd persons, it is a non-negotiable, core belief for the right-wing. It is deeply unpopular in the northeast, which has for half a century been against the influx of foreigners of all religions. Protests against the Bill have turned violence in several states; a Manipuri filmmaker last month returned his Padma Shree award; and on Monday, the late legendary singer Bhupen Hazarika’s family threatened to turn down India’s highest honour, the Bharat Ratna, that was conferred on him last month. The BJP has overnight become unpopular in the northeast, and Assam CM Sarbananda Sonowal has become a pariah.

Yet the Congress, which ruled Assam for 15 years before Sonowal came to power, is unlikely to take electoral advantage and sweep Assam’s 14 parliamentary seats. It is in disarray and saddled with factionalism. It has not owned the hostility to the proposed law, and few readily think of it as an alternative. It has kept the BJP in the game.

Similarly in Mumbai, there is infighting in the Congress between two heavyweights, Milind Deora (the son of the late Murli Deora, who was a key link to the country’s businessmen) and Sanjay Nirupam. The two had clashed for the regional congress presidency (Nirupam won) and are quarreling over parliamentary seat tickets in Mumbai for their own candidates. Deora, a youthful and modern face of the pary, has threatened to sit out the election. Such disunity hardly helps a party in India’s second largest state (and Mumbai is India’s finance capital), particularly given that the Shiv Sena will contest in alliance with the BJP after having extracted its pound of flesh. This is not a headache that party president Rahul Gandhi needs on the eve of the election.

Then at the beginning of this month, Kishore Chandra Deo, a former minister in Dr Manmohan Singh’s second government and the tribal face for the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, quit the party. His words to a newspaper as he departed were damning: “The party is in a coma in Andhra Pradesh and there is nothing that is being done or can be done to revive it.” Another avoidable headache for Rahul. However, he faces a tricky problem as he cosies up to leaders of opposition parties (necessary to corner the BJP in one-on-one contests); his rank and file bitterly compete with the cadre of those very opposition parties. It has caused endless problems in Karnataka where the Congress and the JD(S) are in coalition; and it will cause problems in Kerala now that the Congress-CPI(M) have tiedup in West Bengal.

Factionalism and dissidence are old problems of the Congress party, unlike the BJP where discipline is paramount, even for neglected cabinet ministers and party CMs. (Road and transport minister Nitin Gadkari is nowadays an outspoken exception.) The Congress can argue that these problems dissolve when it comes to power, its organisational glue. It can also argue that bonhomie with the opposition is a temporary phase till Modi is removed from power. Perhaps. Yet both arguments depend on the Congress mounting a robust electoral challenge to a PM who, though his tenure has been a governance disaster, remains personally popular. The Congress should enter the electoral battleground in better shape.

Though Priyanka may not help the Congress gather more seats in UP, she helps change the narrative — in 2014, Modi was the fresh change voters sought, and in 2019 he seems like an old man out of his depth