Modi’s terror posturing puts him ahead of the opposition

The die has been cast, with the announcement on March 10, giving the dates for the next Indian general election to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament. The election will be spread over seven phases, starting from next April 11 to May 19. The counting of the votes will begin on May 23 and the result declared soon after. It will be the world’s largest democratic exercise, with over 850 million Indians expected to go to the one million voting booths to elect 543 legislators to the Lok Sabha. It will also be perhaps the most anticipated general election since the one in 1977, following the lifting of Indira Gandhi’s notorious, dictatorial Emergency rule. In that election, the Indira Gandhi-led Congress party was surprisingly routed (though it came back to power two years later).

What makes the coming election so crucial? Mainly because, at its centre is one of the most controversial and arresting politicians India has had since its independence, 72 years ago: Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

For some, he is a malevolent, polarising figure and a divisive force. For others he is a charismatic personality, guiding his nation in the right direction. In any case, the election will mainly focus on him. On the opposing side, there is a mixed bunch. The considerably diminished Congress party has Rahul Gandhi, scion of the Nehru dynasty. His great grandfather, his grandmother, and his father were all former prime ministers. The last two were assassinated, thereby giving a martyrdom tag to the family. Rahul Gandhi’s sister, Priyanka, has also entered the political fray. With a striking resemblance to her grandmother, Indira Gandhi, she has a charisma that her brother lacks. But she carries the baggage of a husband, Robert Vadra, who is under investigation for allegedly dubious land deals and illegally acquired properties abroad.

Then, there are some game-changing figures in different Indian states. In the key and most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, which the BJP had swept the last time around, a possible alliance between the Samajwadi Party, led by Akhilesh Yadav, and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, could upset the BJP apple cart. In fact, Mayawati is a formidable figure in her own right, as she represents the Dalits (the lowest, or scheduled caste) nation-wide, numbering around 70 million. And the Dalits have largely been turning against the BJP lately. Bihar has the muchrespected Chief Minister Nitesh Kumar presently allied with the BJP, yet with a record of embracing and dumping friends. Another respected figure is N Chandrababu Naidu, Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, who is firmly against the BJP. He is often spoken about as a potential prime minister of the country. In eastern India, there is West Bengal’s feisty Mamata Banerjee, the slayer of the once-dominant Communist Party (Marxist) in that state. She is also lined up against the BJP. If all these anti-BJP forces can unite — and stay united until the election — Modi will have a tough fight on his hands.

What are the main issues before the Indian electorate?

Until less than a month or so ago, the two main ones were rural distress and unemployment. In fact, they were responsible for the setbacks the BJP suffered when it recently lost power in three major states, and only managed to win in Gujarat, Modi’s home state, by a whisker. Thousands of farmers have been committing suicide and statistics showed that despite impressive economic growth figures, the unemployment rate has been rising, not coming down. The demonetisation of the Indian currency, a little over two years ago, had actually been a disaster, leading to more job losses. The BJP was facing electoral disaster.

Then came the suicide bombing in Kashmir of a truck carrying troops of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), in which 40 troopers were killed. After a few days, the Modi government retaliated by sending Indian Air Force planes across the Line of Control (LOC) to bomb terrorist bases in Pakistan, the first time Indian fighter planes had crossed the LOC, since the 1971 war between the two countries. Whether this had the desired effect or not is still being debated. However, it was widely applauded by the Indian public. Modi emerged as a strong, no-nonsense leader who could take on Pakistan, even if it could mean an all-out war. His firmness was compared to the weak response of the Manmohan Singh-led Congress government, following the 2008 terror attack on Mumbai, in which 166 people were killed by just 10 terrorists.

The building of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, which the BJP was planning to make into a major electoral plank, faded into the background, and the security of the nation occupied prime place. There are other issues, needless to say, such as corruption, inflation, and the economy, but national security and the need for strong leadership was suddenly risen to the top. It’s advantage Modi, for the time being at least.

What makes the coming election so crucial? Mainly because, at its centre is one of the most controversial and arresting politicians India has had since its independence, 72 years ago