Global growth outlook remains precarious: IMF

DUBAI — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised the UAE’s growth outlook downward, in line with a cut in global forecasts for 2019 and 2020, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

The UAE’s 2019 growth outlook was slashed from 2.8 per cent in April 2019 to 1.6 per cent. In addition, next year’s growth was cut by 0.8 per cent to 2.5 per cent. The IMF also projected a 2.5 per cent growth rate over the next five years till 2024.

The fund slashed global growth forecast by 0.2 per cent to 3.0 per cent for 2019 and 0.1 per cent to 3.4 per cent for the next year. It also lowered growth outlook for all the major economies such as Germany, China, India, and the UK.

“With a synchronised slowdown and uncertain recovery, the global outlook remains precarious,” International Monetary Fund chief economist Gita Gopinath said.

DUBAI — The International Monetary Fund (MF) on Tuesday revised the UAE’s growth outlook downward, in line with a cut in global forecasts for 2019 and 2020, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

The UAE’s 2019 growth outlook was slashed from 2.8 per cent in April 2019 to 1.6 per cent. In addition, next year’s growth was also cut by 0.8 per cent to 2.5 per cent. The IMF also projected a 2.5 per cent growth rate over the next 5 years till 2024.

Last month, the UAE Central Bank revised the country’s forecast upward by 0.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent for 2019, following a strong growth in the first quarter, led by the oil sector.

The IMF also slashed the growth forecast for the region’s largest economy of Saudi Arabia by 1.7 per cent and 0.8 per cent for 2019 and 2020, respectively, from its previous forecast. It now projects a 0.2 per cent growth for 2019 and 2.2 per cent for 2020.

Regionally, the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) growth outlook was slashed by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent for 2019 and 2020, respectively, from its July 2019 forecast. The IMF now foresees a 0.1 per cent growth in 2019 and 2.7 per cent for the next year.

For Middle East oil exporters, the IMF predicts a contraction of 0.7 per cent in their economies this year and a 2.3 per cent growth in 2020.

“While non-oil growth is expected to strengthen in 2019 on higher government spending and confidence, oil GDP in Saudi Arabia is projected to decline against the backdrop of the extension of the Opec+ agreement

and a generally weak global oil market,” the IMF said.

The newly-formed Middle East and Central Asia regional group’s growth has also been slashed by 0.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent to 0.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively, largely due to a downward revision in Iran due to tighter US sanctions.

The IMF said Iran’s economy will contract by a massive 9.5 percent this year, its worst performance since 1984.

The figure is 3.5 percentage points lower than the IMF’s April projections, reflecting a rapid deterioration in Tehran’s economy after the US implemented tighter sanctions on its oil exports, the nation’s main source of income.