Slowing economy is weakening Pakistan’s efforts to fight the virus

Idon’t understand some things about these extended lockdowns. It makes perfect sense to keep everybody isolated so the coronavirus doesn’t spread any further. But then why are countries that are able to best implement strict lockdowns experiencing the largest number of new positive cases as well as deaths? Meanwhile countries that just do not have the capacity to shut down for too long, like Pakistan, are suffering far less especially in terms of deaths.

You can say what you like about how late which country implemented the lockdown. But the truth is that everybody was behind the curve because there was simply no way of knowing just what was going on in the earliest stages. And it’s nothing short of a miracle, really, that Pakistan has not experienced the kind of outbreak that has brought far stronger, and richer countries to their knees.

And one can only hope that this string of good luck lasts a while because it does not seem that the people are too interested in their own well-being. Just this week, for example, the government began fulfilling its promise of providing financial relief to the lowest income groups, which is admirable and never really seen before in the Islamic Republic. So they identified about 12 million families and started disbursing a few thousand rupees each, to take care of their immediate needs for about four months.

But, barring a few cities, the thing turned into a circus just about everywhere. It seems our people are just unable to stand a few feet apart. No doubt the poorest people have been suffering these past few weeks in ways most of us cannot even imagine. They have been listening to their children crying for food and been unable to do anything about it. That is why there have already been some reports of theft and street crime by desperate people. And you can forget about them being able to even afford things like masks or gloves.

But you can expect them to stand three feet apart, can’t you? It turns out that you can’t. There was shoving, pushing and elbowing in almost all cash distribution centres amid reports of at least one elderly woman dying in a stampede, several people getting injuries that needed emergency treatment and a number of policemen and security officials being roughed up just for advocating physical distancing.

Let’s try and put this in perspective. The lockdown is necessary to contain the virus that kills and is still without a vaccine. The free cash delivery was necessary for the most vulnerable sections of society to survive the lockdown so there’s no danger of spreading the virus. Yet the cash delivery itself potentially became, however inadvertently, the very mechanism of spreading the diseases far and wide because of all the unnecessary mingling. Who is to say how many of the beneficiaries were already infected. And how many more people they would have passed the coronavirus on to just because they could not follow simple orders. Both the cash and the distancing was meant for their benefit only. Now they could well have harmed so many more people, including all the staff assembled there to facilitate them.

Surely all this would have put the government in a very awkward position. The economy was a sad story even before this pandemic. Now it’s gone through the floor just trying to finance the lockdown. And still the government has kept daily-wagers and poor workers at the forefront of its policy response. If only the people would help the government help themselves, there would be a little more breathing space for everybody.

If the miracle doesn’t continue, though, there’s very bad news just round the corner. Already the virus has spread to Karachi’s slums, where just too many people live in very cramped spaces in utter, appalling poverty to even think of an effective quarantine. So far the government has resisted reopening the economy precisely to avoid public interaction because, in the worst case, it could spread the virus among workers and then an even harsher lockdown would be needed.

But now, with the economy falling into recession and growth likely to turn negative, they are going to have to begin turning the wheels of the economy no matter what the cost. Besides, with the more vulnerable groups largely out and about despite the lockdown, it seems all that has been accomplished is shutting down the economy and driving thousands of people out of work. So was this lockdown worth it? And should it continue? It’s already clear that the fewer cases and deaths we have so far registered was not because of the quality or effectiveness of the quarantine. It really is some sort of miracle. Because countries that have done far more are suffering far worse. I have personally respected the lockdown, going out only for groceries, etc., and not letting my family even near the front door. But I still don’t understand it.