Indian lockdown has not put lid on the virus

Amonth ago the Indian lockdown was being globally praised as an astoundingly successful effort for 1.4 billion people to keep the Covid-19 figures under control. And, truth be told, it was working. Indians, usually quite cavalier about government dictates and not accustomed to being corralled and herded got into the spirit of togetherness, gave the lockdown a certain credibility. The relatively slow progress of the pandemic gave rise to hope that India could beat this monster while simultaneously mobilising its huge pharma base to find a vaccine.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi put aside political differences on several occasions to address the nation and pleaded for support in this cause and he struck a chord with the nation’s psyche. Whether it was songfests, the banging of utensils or candlelight vigils the good fight was on. We would overcome.

History will tell us whether the unravelling of the lockdown was a surrender to political pressure or that people simply ran out of stamina for the long haul. In Britain during the WWII as Germany literally was a day or two away from getting Winston Churchill to consider the white flag as a sad option, the nation fought back. There are countries today that have lived on top of a minefield for a decade not knowing when the munitions will have their name on it.

The Indian people began to give up inside two months because of rank, bad statesponsored politicking. Media played with their minds and social platforms confused them further.

Today, India is divided into a sharp cleave with millions saving themselves by staying indoors and also millions ignoring the dictate, exposing themselves to the caprice of fate. Karma, kismet, que sera sera.

The very states that gave the centre a hard time over the spectres of hunger and deprivation discovered how easily that prickly path was navigated, the day they opened the alcohol shops and witnessed queues several kilometres long…where did the money come from?

Fact is that with 52,000 cases and Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Delhi leading the dubious fray, the rise in the cases in the capital has been exponential. There were 3,600 cases in the country on May 6 alone, the highest in a given day. The current half-baked lockdown will only add to the risk factor. The trans-migration of workers and their families in tens of millions cramped in transportation that does not even recognise social distancing is certain to hit the numbers by next week and those in lockdown voluntarily are at the mercy of those who have thrown caution to the winds. India has been pushed to the edge of the abyss. The rural regions will also be impacted by the exodus from the cities.

If India goes the way of the United States, which is now very much possible that with the added stress of more than two million Indians coming home from 23 different countries in a long-drawn airlift, the different strains of Covid-19 will also add to the pressure. The asymptomatic element is the most intimidating and plays footsies with projections. If you do not know you have it and can give it to others the jury cannot even sit in judgement.

History will also ask why India could not have just hung in there a few more weeks and flattened the graph. The numbers are doubling every 11 days. Out of control India could reduce even Italy, Spain, and Britain into statistical minors in the league of death stakes.

Modi may have one option left. If he discovers that the mortality strike rate is too high and no relief on the horizon he might well have to re-impose the lockdown with the help of the armed forces and even the final option of declaring an emergency.

His battle with a very shortsighted, self-serving state government approach, and possibly skirmishes with economic powerhouses made the resolve weak. It is a huge pity India could not hang in there. What price is the economy if the only light you are getting is from the funeral pyres.

If India goes the way of the US, which is now very much possible with the added stress of more than two million Indians coming home from 23 different countries, the different strains of Covid-19 will also add to the pressure.