Brace for a jobs crisis

Global economy could take a 10% hit that could cost $9 trillion

The coronavirus pandemic could cut up to 9.7 per cent off the global economy, the Asian Development Bank said on Friday, doubling its previous estimate as the virus stifles trade and leaves millions jobless.

The estimated impact would cost as much as $8.8 trillion based on a range of scenarios, but ADB said government interventions could help offset the losses inflicted by the crisis.

Up to 242 million jobs will be lost due to the virus, more than seven times higher than the employment losses seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago. Foregone labour income could top $1.8 trillion. “These will be difficult to recoup,” the Manila-based lender said. —

beijing — China’s factory output rose for the first time this year as the world’s second-largest economy slowly emerged from its coronavirus lockdown, although consumption remained depressed amid increased job losses.

Industrial production climbed 3.9 per cent in April from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, faster than the 1.5 per cent increase forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts and following a 1.1 per cent fall in March.

After months of lockdowns, China is reopening its economy as the outbreak on the mainland comes under control. The production of oil, coal, metals and electricity all increased as plants restarted operations in April.

“Overall, this set of data shows only small and gradual improvements in economic activity, which could upset markets as China is seen as the ‘first out’ economy from COVID-19,” said Iris Pang, Chief Economist for Greater China at ING.

China’s economy shrank for the first time since at least 1992 in the first quarter, as restrictions to curb the spread of the virus shut down factories and shopping malls. —

Overall, this set of data shows only small and gradual improvements in economic activity Iris Pang,

Chief economist for Gartner at ING