Countries must prepare for natural disasters
The world has been planning for the future in the mistaken belief that it will resemble the past. But as Covid-19 coincides with cyclones in South Asia and the Pacific and vast locust swarms in East Africa, the need to prepare for a world of unexpected shocks has become clearer than ever. Epidemics, floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires are all expected to become more frequent and severe, affecting hundreds of millions.
The Covid-19 pandemic is a global wake-up call. And as leaders of international organisations, we understand both the grave threat and the potential opportunity for change that it represents. In particular, Covid-19 and recent climate disasters have shown that we must step up investment in preparedness now, instead of waiting for the next crisis to hit. The choice is clear: delay and pay, or plan and prosper.
We know that investing in disaster preparedness is worth it — both in terms of human lives saved and economic returns. Research by the Global Commission on Adaptation, for example, shows that benefit-to-cost ratios for climate-adaptation investments range from 2:1 to 10:1.
To be sure, preparing for major shocks involves substantial outlays. Building resilience to climate impacts could cost $140-300 billion annually by 2030, while meeting World Health Organization minimum standards for pandemic preparedness will require up to $3.4 billion per year.
The human cost is high, too. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies last year found that doing nothing could increase the number of people who need international humanitarian aid because of floods, storms, droughts and wildfires every year — currently 108 million — 50 per cent by 2030.
The coming year represents a critical window for investing in resilience, because governments will spend trillions of dollars to restart economies after the pandemic. The danger is that financial resources, and with it the political appetite for change, will then shrink. That is why now is the time for the rich world to help poorer countries reboot their economies and boost their resilience.