Modi threat to cut off Pakistan’s water
NEW DELHI // India is threatening to revoke a 1960 water treaty with Pakistan after a militant attack on an army base in Kashmir killed 18 soldiers.
Militants sponsored by Pakistan carried out the attack two weeks ago, India claims.
The Indus Waters Treaty, mediated by the World Bank, has held through decades of tension and three wars.
It covers six rivers, including the Indus, that originate in India and outlines how water is to be shared and controlled by both countries equitably.
At meeting to review the treaty on Monday, prime minister Narendra Modi said: “Blood and water cannot flow simultaneously.”
The government has not officially stated how it will amend its approach to the treaty.
Sartaj Aziz, foreign affairs adviser to Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif, warned that revoking the treaty could be construed as “an act of war”.
“International law states that India cannot unilaterally separate itself from the treaty,” Mr Aziz told the national assembly.
Doing so would give “Pakistan a good reason to approach the UN Security Council”.
The Indian government also decided to suspend meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission, a dispute resolution body that meets twice a year, under the treaty. The commission has met 112 times, with the last meeting in July.
India could also choose to extract the maximum quota allowed by the treaty – 20 per cent of the water from the western Jhelum, Chenab and Indus rivers. For years India drew much less than that, mostly because it did not need the full 20 per cent.
If it were to divert more water from the Indus, in particular, into irrigating fields in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistani farmers downstream would face severe water shortages.
Even if India decides to increase its extraction of water from the western rivers, it will not be able to hit its full quota immediately, said Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People.
“To take out the full quota of water, you need a certain kind of infrastructure, which isn’t there,” said Mr Thakkar, whose group is a network of activists that assess issues about rivers across the subcontinent.
“You can put in some devices that lift water from the rivers for irrigation, that can be done in the short term, but even with a large number of lifts, you won’t get the full entitlement.” Drawing more water could cause other collateral damage, he said. “There will be damage in Kashmir,” Mr Thakkar said. “You will have deforestation, displacement of people, and a disruption of the river and its biodiversity.”
Several members of Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party want the water treaty repealed. “Nothing comes before the country,” said Saryu Roy, a BJP minister in the state of Jharkhand.
“If the treaty can be used to teach Pakistan a lesson, then we should use it.”
Uttam Sinha, a water security scholar at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, said those calling to repeal were “a small constituency”.
“A review of the treaty does not mean abrogation,” Mr Sinha said.
“It means to look at the provisions of the treaty that entitles India to exploit and harness both the western and eastern rivers of the Indus basin.”
The review carries “a strong diplomatic message that Pakistan should not take India for granted”, he said.
“The UN’s International Law Commission says states can take appropriate countermeasures in response to wrongful acts by another state,” Mr Sinha said.
Even unilaterally suspending meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission, Mr Thakkar said, could be interpreted as breaking the treaty. “We have to remember India has relationships with other countries with whom it shares rivers,” he said.
“There’s China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Myanmar.
“China could well choose to break some of our river water treaties as well, so we don’t want a precedent for that.