Midnight start for ceasefire in Syria
Russia, Iran and Turkey back move that excludes ISIL
BEIRUT // A nationwide ceasefire between Syrian rebel and government forces was expected to begin at midnight last night in a deal backed by Russia, Iran and Turkey.
The deal, supported by the main foreign powers involved in Syria’s civil war and coming just over a week after a rebel withdrawal from Aleppo, will exclude Jabhat Fatah Al Sham and so-called affiliates, as well as ISIL, according to the Syrian government. Until July, Jabhat Fatah Al Sham was Al Qaeda’s Syria branch and remains a leading force among rebel ranks.
“The parties, with this understanding, committed to cease all armed, including aerial, attacks and refrain from expanding the territories under their control at the expense of one another,” said Turkey’s foreign ministry.
The agreement on the apparently open- ended ceasefire came ahead of planned peace talks between the Syrian opposition and government in the Kazakh capital, Astana. “The agreements reached are, of course, fragile, need a special attention and involvement ... But after all, this is a notable result of our joint work, efforts by the defence and foreign ministries, our partners in the regions,” said Russian president Vladimir Putin. Moscow, which just weeks ago was dismissing a nationwide ceasefire as beneficial only to the rebels, has tried to portray the new truce as an opportunity to reduce Russian forces in Syria. Yesterday, Mr Putin said he agreed with a Russian defence ministry proposal to cut back the country’s military presence there.
While past ceasefires have been brokered by Russia and the United States, Washington was conspicuously absent from the latest negotiations.
Instead, Turkey, which is backing rebel forces in northern Syria, was included. While the US remained the rebels’ chief negotiator on the international stage for a long time, its credibility with opposition forces has dwindled.
A break in fighting will be welcomed by fighters on both sides of the conflict, but many obstacles remain in the way of its successful implementation.
Chief among these is the role of Jabhat Fatah Al Sham and its allies. The group’s forces are intertwined with other, less extremist rebel units, particularly in the north-western province of Idlib.
Whether the group’s allies will be excluded from the truce, and whether these allies plan on abiding by the truce’s terms themselves, remains to be seen.
According to the Russian defence ministry, groups representing more than 60,000 rebels have agreed to the truce, including members of the Jabhat Fatah Al Sham ally Ahrar Al Sham, another group in Idlib. Jaish Al Islam, a powerful hardline rebel group that resisted ceasefires earlier this year, has also agreed, according to Moscow.
A number of rebel factions in Idlib have fallen under the influence of Jabhat Fatah Al Sham, largely because of its military prowess. Breaking ranks could be difficult for these factions to accept.
As in past ceasefires, Jabhat Fatah Al Sham could play a spoiler role. With the group unlikely to be included in any potential political settlement, open war remains the only situation in which the group can thrive and increase the dependency of other rebel factions on its fighters.
While many Syrian rebels have agreed to the ceasefire, they remain far from willing to trust the government and its allies. The rebels accused pro-government forces of using a ceasefire implemented in February to prepare for an assault on Aleppo. Now, fresh from their victory in Aleppo, there will be fears that the government and its allies will seek to move arms and troops to another front line, or perhaps buy time to repel an ISIL advance in Palmyra before resuming their fight against the rebels.
The government’s continued talk of achieving a complete victory in Syria – as well as its past refusal to seriously discuss a peace deal at negotiations – will also make rebels wary of the latest truce.
Involving Turkey in the ceasefire instead of the US gives opposition forces an advocate they can trust more. But while rebels may listen to Ankara more than they would to Washington, that trust is also eroding.
Turkey’s intervention in the war has been aimed at confronting ISIL and the Kurdish YPG. Although its rebel proxies were close to Aleppo, Ankara did not allow them to join the battle for the city, something that the rebels in the city may remember.
Although Turkey has more or less direct control over rebel militias along its border with Syria north of Aleppo, it has less of a hold on factions elsewhere.
For Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, ensuring that forces they support in Syria stick to the ceasefire could prove a major challenge. While leaders may agree to such truces, there is a multitude of factions fighting for competing agendas when supposedly on the same side.
Convincing them all remains a chief obstacle to peace.