Trump has work cut out undoing the Obama era
President will need more than words to make good on his campaign promises
NEW YORK // Some require no more than a flourish of a pen. Others will take months or years of political wrangling.
Either way, Donald Trump will be making big changes to Barack Obama’s domestic and foreign policy after he is sworn in as US president tomorrow.
But it could all prove more complicated than his campaign suggested, says Costas Panagopoulos, director of the Centre for Electoral Politics and Democracy at Fordham University in New York City.
“Once you get to the nitty gritty of creating or undoing public policies, there are all sorts of consequences that may or may not have been thought through,” he said.
“These changes are not simply a return to a status quo.
“They create a new status quo that will have consequences for politics and for people’s lives.”
Mr Trump’s aides have said he could spend his first day overturning dozens of the more than 260 executive actions signed into law by Mr Obama, particularly those considered to impose a burden on business.
That may include parts of Mr Obama’s environmental legacy, which could include removing the US from the Paris climate accord.
Mr Trump has signalled his intention to reverse foreign policy matters, starting with Mr Obama’s Iran nuclear deal.
“I’m not happy with the Iran deal. I think it’s one of the worst deals ever made. I think it’s one of the dumbest deals I’ve ever seen,” he told The Times at the weekend.
Under the agreement, most UN sanctions were lifted a year ago after Iran curtailed its nuclear activities and opened up to inspections.
Renegotiating the deal for tougher terms would be difficult. The new president would have to persuade Iran and the other signatories to reopen talks, which they have indicated they would oppose. But he could unilaterally withdraw from the deal.
Last week, presumptive defence secretary James Mattis told the senate confirmation hearing: “I think it is an imperfect arms control agreement – it’s not a friendship treaty. But when America gives her word, we have to live up to it and work with our allies.”
On the other hand, said Paul Fritz, associate professor of foreign policy at Hofstra Universi- ty on Long Island, the outcome may depend on who has the ear of the incoming president – the hawkish Gen Mike Flynn, presumptive national security adviser, or Gen Mattis.
“If the state department is frozen out and Mike Flynn is directing policy, which is a distinct possibility, I think Trump might be inclined to do more radical things,” Prof Fritz said.
Syria is another area Mr Trump has designated for change. The Obama administration maintained that sustainable peace is impossible while Bashar Al Assad remains in power.
So Washington pushed for his removal and the CIA offered support, in the form of weapons, logistics and finances, to anti-government rebels in Syria. Mr Trump has suggested he wants to stop that support. Instead, he has proposed aligning with Russia, Mr Al Assad’s principal backer, against ISIL.
He hints that he would ditch Mr Obama’s policies and disregard the foreign policy establishment, because he has “an opposite view to many people regarding Syria” and voices concerns about differentiating moderates from extremists because “we have no idea” who the rebels are. Hawks such as John McCain in the senate have voted through regulations that could allow the US to send portable surfaceto-air missiles to Syrian rebels and guaranteed funding for the Pentagon’s train and equip programme until next year, in part to make it easier for Mr Trump to support the war against ISIL and against the Syrian government.
Whether he wants to ditch or pursue Mr Obama’s policy will be up to the new president, but allies such as the UK have privately reminded him that cosying up to Russia in Syria means also advancing Iran’s interests.
Mr Trump’s intentions could become clearer next week when peace talks are held in Kazakhstan. Sponsors Turkey and Russia have invited the president-elect to send a team.
“We often think that presidents will radically change foreign policy, but when they assume office there is something that creates continuity – whether it’s the bureaucracy, which is resistant to change, or the deeper understanding of what’s at stake,” said Mr Fritz.
“I’m 50- 50 [ on] whether that happens with Trump.”
Things are more straightforward at home. Last year, Mr Obama announced he was raising the number of refugees allowed into the US to 110,000 in 2017 from 85,000 in 2016, to take account of the crisis in Syria. Mr Trump has fed fears that terrorists could enter the country by posing as asylum seekers. As president, he will have full authority to set his own limits.
In other areas, a Republican majority in both chambers of congress will prove helpful. The process to repeal the affordable care act, better known as ObamaCare, has already started. Republicans have launched a procedural gambit through budget reconciliation, which allows them to strip elements of the law that need federal funding.
The move still presents challenges. Some aspects of ObamaCare are popular, such as banning insurance companies from discriminating against patients with existing conditions, and helping 20 million Americans obtaining cover for the first time.
But it has also led to increases in premiums of as much as 30 per cent this year.
As a result, Mr Trump has promised to come up with an alternative, using competition across state lines and pressure on drug firms to drive down costs.
Everyone will be “beautifully covered”, he told The Washington Post. He was not forthcoming about the finer points, but added: “It’s very much formulated down to the final strokes. We haven’t put it in quite yet but we’re going to be doing it soon.”