James Zogby Why I’m so worried,
When Donald Trump shows up for work this week, it’s anyone’s guess what he will do. Over the past month, many reporters have asked me “What do you think Trump will do and what are you most concerned about”? My simple answer has been: “I know what worries me most, but I have no idea what he’ll do because I don’t think he knows either.”
During the campaign, Mr Trump promised a boatload of dramatic initiatives and actions. After winning, many have been substantially changed or just disappeared. Hillary Clinton isn’t going to jail; Mexico isn’t paying for a wall; Muslims aren’t being banned; and, lest we forget, Wall Street and lobbyists aren’t problems any more.
We’ll soon see what Mr Trump will do. If I had to guess, I’d assume that he’ll undo some of Barack Obama’s executive orders that protected air quality, water purity, consumers and workers. These will all be serious setbacks, but they won’t make good on the new president’s “big promises” to transform the US from the dark nightmare of his speeches to his vaguely defined vision of being “great again”.
The job of being president is different from starring in a reality TV show, running a campaign, tweeting or being a real estate self-promoter. Boastful rhetoric and vainglorious promises may have defined Mr Trump’s road to the White House but I fear that he may not be able to adjust to the challenges of being there. There are several reasons to be concerned.
Mr Trump likes to be in control, but as he will soon learn, the president is not so much captain of the team as he is captive of it. He’s not the only actor in this drama nor does he have complete control over events, or even over those who supposedly work for him. Being president is not as easy as starring in your own TV show. A president is dependent on staff for input and on their ability to execute. This might sound simple, but when you consider the degree to which Mr Trump’s cabinet appointees have already made clear in Senate hearings their disagreements with his views on critical issues and the extent to which the positions of some cabinet appointees differ dramatically from those of key White House staff, internal conflicts will make for messy decision-making. The new president will also need Congress and the much-maligned GOP establishment to support his agenda. And here too, his control will be limited. Republican leaders in both houses will give Mr Trump a bit of a honeymoon, but they know that he starts his presidency with low approval ratings. With all members of Congress and eight Republican senators facing ree- lection in 2018, expect that members of Congress will soon start thinking more about their own careers and less about the success of the president’s agenda. One big blunder, embarrassing incident, or ethics or financial scandal and we’ll see how loyal Republicans will be to “their” president.
More significant than the difficulties the president will face in attempting to control competing staff or Congress will be his inability to control unforeseen events at home or abroad. I often note that presidents are judged less by their success in accomplishing the agenda they set for themselves and more by how they respond to the agenda set for them by an unpredictable world.
George W Bush was confronted with the horror of September 11, 2001, the devastation of Katrina and the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. He squandered the world's goodwill after 9/11, launching two disastrous wars and engaging in torture abroad and repression at home. He bungled Katrina and struggled to deal with the developing economic crisis.
Barack Obama began his race for the White House before the recession hit. It was presented to him as an unwanted gift. He inherited an Israeli-Palestinian conflict reeling from the disastrous Gaza war and the election of an incorrigible Israeli leader. He also had to contend with a resurgent Russia, an increasingly aggressive China, and the unsettling consequences of the Arab Spring. Mr Obama successfully managed an economic turnaround while introducing a sweeping healthcare reform bill and other significant pieces of social legislation. But he had much less success in foreign affairs. Benjamin Netanyahu was a persistent headache whom Mr Obama felt pressured to deal with gingerly. His efforts to reset with Russia and the Muslim world failed, and his desire to pivot to Asia was stymied by domestic politics and the unravelling of the Middle East.
This inability to control people and events will test the Trump presidency. He won't find it easy to fire whoever doesn't play by his rules. And unlike business, he won't be able to declare bankruptcy and get a “do over”. In the White House, should he mess up, the entire world will suffer.
As much as the new president has to be concerned about dissent within his administration, an uncooperative Congress, independent-minded foreign leaders, foreign wars or terror attacks or other calamities that may occur, I am concerned with how an unpredictable Mr Trump will respond to situations he can’t control. He hasn’t demonstrated the patience, discipline and thoughtfulness that will be required to handle complex issues and unexpected problems.
So yes, I am troubled by the prospect of Mr Trump undoing some of Mr Obama's progressive agenda. But, to be honest, more than that I am concerned that on any given day, given what we've seen of his personality and what we know about the demands of the job he has now assumed, we could be one tweet away from an international incident or one terror attack away from a campaign of mass repression.