Peace talks can’t succeed without hope of peace
Syria truce was bolstered in Astana, but where does it go from there?
BEIRUT // The two days of Syria peace talks arranged by Russia, Turkey and Iran were quickly hailed as a success by the organisers.
The foreign powers drew closer at the meeting and agreed to reinforce a truce between rebel and government forces.
Russia, which backs the government of Bashar Al Assad in the war, said it hoped the talks would aid the stalled UN peace process in Geneva and that Kremlin officials would meet opposition delegates this week.
But despite the optimism, the talks that ended on Tuesday produced no major breakthroughs and peace continues to be distant for Syria’s warring parties.
Representatives of Syria’s government and opposition were in Astana but remained too hostile to take part in face-to-face talks, leaving the deal making to Russia, Turkey and Iran.
The three powers are actively involved in Syria’s war and Iran and Turkey also command proxy forces there.
But in a war where factions on the same side can have diverging goals, the ability of the guarantors to control their allies can be limited. Turkey’s hold on its proxies will be put to the test as Syrian government troops move near Turkish-backed rebel units north-east of Aleppo.
Ankara intervened in the war in August last year, with Turkish forces supporting rebels fighting ISIL and the Kurdish YPG faction. Turkey has kept its proxies out of the fight against government forces, despite pleas for help by rebels besieged and driven from Aleppo.
Stopping its proxies fighting government forces, however, might not be easy for Ankara as rebel and government lines start to meet near the ISIL-held town of Al Bab. Both forces are pushing for the same territory.
While Turkey has not looked for a fight with the Syrian government, Ankara seems ready to hold territory captured by its proxies. On Tuesday, Turkey’s deputy prime minister Numan Kurtmulus said his country would not hand over Al Bab after driving ISIL out.
If the fragile ceasefire in Syria holds, rebel and government negotiators will meet in Geneva to continue with the UN peace process on February 8.
But it remains difficult to see a solution emerging unless all the sides sit down and negotiate, or at least make concession offers through their foreign backers.
Key issues have yet to be addressed. There have been no signs the Syrian government is ready to talk about the future of Mr Al Assad, who the rebels want removed.
The rebels are not in the best position to negotiate. The loss of Aleppo last month deprived them of a key bargaining chip. And as they find themselves increasingly cornered in Syria, their foreign backers also seem to be abandoning them.
Turkey continues to support rebel proxy forces in northern Syria but has sidled closer to Russia, which has focused its war effort on rebel forces elsewhere in the country. Russia and Turkey are now conducting joint air raids against ISIL in Syria.
The United States, a main representative of Syria’s rebels at past negotiations, saw its role in talks sidelined in the final days of the Obama administration. US president Donald Trump promised a new direction on Syria and appears to be open to co-operating with Russia against ISIL. However, the US could be turning its attention away from the conflict, with the Trump administration not sending any delegates to the Astana talks.
Finding peace through the Astana process may prove difficult given that some major factions did not attend. ISIL and Jabhat Fatah Al Sham were excluded because they are extremist organisations. But also excluded was the YPG, the dominant Kurdish faction, which controls much of Syria’s border with Turkey. The YPG has tried to avoid conflict with the Syrian government but is locked in combat with Turkey and its proxy militias in northern Syria. The YPG made it clear they would not consider themselves bound by any agreements brokered in Astana.
The YPG has aspirations of post- war autonomy and has shown it will confront any groups that try to take back its territorial gains. Any peace deal that sidelines Syria’s Kurds seems certain to ensure that fighting will continue.