French election will be pivotal

Voting begins today in the most unpredictable European election this year

The first round of the French presidential election takes place today in what will be the most unpredictable – and most pivotal – election in Europe this year. Both Germany and Britain will also go to the polls over the coming months, but neither are as difficult to read, or will potentially have such far-reaching consequences as the French election. In just the past few days, the scale of the task facing the new French president has been confirmed. Although France has been battered by a series of terrorist attacks – most recently an attack last week in Paris, admitted by ISIL – security was not the main topic for the French election. But now it is again.

The far right, in the shape of Marine Le Pen, who is widely tipped to progress through the first round, has managed to link domestic attackers such as Karim Cheurfi, the Frenchman who carried out the attack against police on the Champs-Elysees, with the wider question of immigration, support for Syrian refugees and even the European Union.

If Ms Le Pen were to win, that would, of course, have an impact on the situation for Syrian refugees, as well as on relations with countries such as Morocco. But the real impact would be on the European Union project itself. Ms Le Pen has said she wants to reduce European “interference” in France. With Britain leaving the union, a win for Ms Le Pen’s National Front could fatally damage the union.

The election will also be a blow to the establishment, whoever wins. Another front-runner, Emmanuel Macron, an independent, has made his outsider status a selling point, to great effect. Even if Francois Fillon, a mainstream politician dogged by allegations of missing public funds, were to scrape through, the political elite has been tainted. Even if the new president is an established face, he will not be able to carry on with business as usual.

An unpredictable election with a prominent female candidate and a man who revels in his outsider status? Perhaps, after all, the French and the Americans are not so far apart.