Iran strike shows new strategy

The first use for years by Tehran of ballistic missiles sends an ominous signal

In the space of a few hours on Sunday, two military engagements took place in Syria – two engagements that point to how the Syrian conflict is reshaping the role of regional and international players. Look first at a strike in the eastern Syrian city of Deir Ezzor by a number of ballistic missiles. That would have been relatively unremarkable, except it was Iran that fired the missiles. Tehran said it did so in retaliation for the attack on its parliament, claimed by ISIL. Yet this was the first time for many years – many decades, indeed – that Iran had fired ballistic missiles in this way. The last was during the Iran-Iraq war. And then they had done so into a neighbouring country. For Iran to fire missiles across a neighbouring country into another is unprecedented, at least since the founding of the Islamic republic.

A significant change, then, and one that has messages and consequences for the wider Middle East. The type of missiles that Iran is thought to has used has a range of around 400 miles – far enough to put every Gulf state within its sights. That message would have been heard clearly in the GCC. The consequences of that message have yet to be determined, but now that Tehran has demonstrated a willingness to put its arsenal to military use, it is likely any neighbours who feel threatened will seek to increase their defensive shields.

On the same day as the strike in Deir Ezzor, the United States shot down a Syrian fighter jet in the same area, something it hasn’t done to a foreign fighter jet so far this century. The immediate result was the breaking of a communications channel between Russia and the US to prevent clashes between their jets.

This spat may not seem overly significant, but Syria is turning into a battleground where foreign powers are exercising their military and political muscles. Iran, Turkey, the United States, Russia (and indeed several others) are now all involved inside Syria. The chance of a miscalculation leading to an escalation is all too real. And the consequences could also be severe. An arena of limited consequences could rapidly turn serious.