Saudi king places his trust in youth
Mohammed bin Salman named heir to the throne as elder cousin Mohammed bin Nayef bows out of public life
ABU DHABI // An unprecedented generational power shift in Saudi Arabia was solidified early yesterday with the promotion of Prince Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince.
Members of the royal family and other prominent Saudis travelled to Mecca to pledge their allegiance to the new heir to the throne, after the promotion and other decrees that placed a number of young princes in prominent positions. The former crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, was relieved of his position as successor and his post as interior minister. The move cemented Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ascent to power as the driving force behind sweeping changes over the past two and a half years to the kingdom’s oilbased economy, social contract and posture in the region.
Saudi media broadcast footage of the new crown prince bowing to his older cousin Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and kissing his hand in a show of respect, as the former crown prince pledged loyalty to his successor. Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now also deputy prime minister and retains the key positions of defence minister, chairman of the state oil company and architect of Saudi Arabia’s vast economic diversification plan. The former crown prince’s 33-year-old nephew, Abdul Aziz bin Saud bin Nayef, was named to replace Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as interior minister. The young prince had been an assistant to his uncle at the ministry, and for the past six months had worked at the defence ministry under Prince Mohammed.
Saudi Arabia’s Allegiance Council voted 31-3 in support of the promotion of Prince Mohammed. The young sons of a number of influential princes of the older generation who sit on the council were made ambassadors and promoted to key government positions. King Salman also issued a number of decrees along with the promotion that made Prince Mohammed next in line to the throne. They included an amendment to the basic law that requires the next crown prince not to be from the same branch of the royal family as the king, widely seen as a concession to other branches of the family. Since Prince Mohammed is in his early thirties, he could rule for decades.
Another decree further rolled back reductions to allowances for state employees – two-thirds of the workforce – that lasted for 8 months but were ended in April after public discontent and what Riyadh said was greater fiscal leeway and a plan to stimulate the economy. The decree stipulated that the benefits withheld over that period will be backdated.
The removal of Prince Mohammed bin Nayef was not entirely unexpected by close followers of royal politics inside the kingdom. But many had assumed that the unprecedented skipping of a generation of the royal family after 70 years of rule by King Abdulaziz’s sons would occur only once the assertive and hard working young prince had proved that his radical policies had succeeded. These include the war in Yemen and the Vision 2030 economic reform plan to end what he has described as the kingdom’s addiction to oil revenues.
With his elevation to crown prince, ambiguity over who will lead the kingdom and questions over whether the progressive policies will last have been revoved. Along with the portfolios that were already consolidated under his control, Prince Mohammed will chair the cabinet, further concentrating power in his hands and bringing the interior ministry under his control. Some ministries have been loath to coordinate or cede power, but that may now change.
“There are many implications – this will offer real stability in the minds of the people, in local or foreign investors” who have been sceptical about Vision 2030 and whether it would fall by the wayside like previous plans under a different king, said Hesham Alghannam, a political analyst in Riyadh. “What’s next in the Saudi kingdom? We were with this question for the last 20 years. Now it seems that for the first time the path is very clear for the future.” Prince Mohammed is popular with many young Saudis who are hungry for economic and social changes in a conservative but rapidly changing society, and leadership that reflects the concerns of their generation. The new crown prince has also placed curbs on the religious police and worked to increase access to entertainment.
Observers said those social changes were now likely to be accelerated. “I’m expecting women’s driving to happen this year, it’s low hanging fruit,” said Mr Alwahabbi.
“Social pressure will be relaxed a bit more, the whole country will be more orientated toward the economy” and the transformation plan. Increasing the proportion of women in the workforce is a key component. There has been some push back from the religious establishment within the state and groups in society to some of the measures Prince Mohammed has enacted. His promotion to crown prince, with so many files under his command, may increase his ability to push for deeper reforms. Legalisation of driving for women will be a key test.
Conservative religious forces in society “may try but I don’t think they have the strength to block any reforms”, said Mr Alghannam. “I think, especially now, the state is very strong.” Prince Mohammed has also overseen a much more aggressive foreign policy with the intervention in Yemen, desire to confront Iran and the recent moves to isolate Qatar and force it to fall in line with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
Many were surprised that his promotion came with the crisis with Qatar at its peak, but there was general agreement among analysts that Saudi Arabia’s desire to become more active in shaping a region in turmoil will probably grow. Prospects for Doha’s push for US-mediated negotiations may grow even more remote, while a negotiated settlement to the Yemen conflict and any detente with Iran may also become less likely in the short term. “The key question is what comes next in this quest to counter Iranian influence? Is the Qatar blockade simply the opening act?” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.