Ascent to power of a young reformer
New crown prince was close to late king in final years
ABU DHABI // Soon after the surprise royal decree yesterday morning, Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef met at Safa palace in Riyadh.
The elder prince had come to pledge his loyalty and give his blessing to his younger cousin, who bowed to kiss his hand in a show of respect.
“I will rest now, and may God help you,” the outgoing crown prince said to his successor. “We will continue to take your guidance and advice,” Prince Mohammed bin Salman replied.
With that exchange, the crown prince, in his early thirties, cemented a stunning ascent to power and responsibility that will shape the kingdom – and the broader region – for decades, as he works to steer his country through unprecedented economic and social change, and towards a more aggressive assertion of regional power.
Prince Mohammed’s rise began perhaps even before his father became king in January 2015. The young prince grew close to King Abdullah in the monarch’s later years, as the relatively liberal monarch and his nephew bonded over a shared vision for the kingdom’s future. Prince Mohammed began mapping out ideas for restructuring the sclerotic government system, made slow moving and resistant to necessary change by its competing centres of power among the vast royal family, religious establishment and influential non-royal figures. Key to this was diversifying the economy away from its sapping dependence on oil revenue, and changing the unsustainable cradle-to-grave promise to Saudi Arabia’s 20 million citizens.
When King Salman ascended the throne, the monarch’s favourite son and close adviser finally had the opportunity to begin turning his vision into reality. Prince Mohammed became the most powerful deputy crown prince in the kingdom’s history, with control of the defence ministry, the state oil company and economic policy.
The cautious – and inefficient – Saudi policy process was swept aside, as the prince launched a military intervention in Yemen and rolled out a plan for a radical reshaping of the economy.
The prince has a close relationship with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, and the UAE made a strategic investment in an alliance with Riyadh as the young reformer gained power. Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s accumulation of authority and his inexperience, breaking with tradition and curtailing of the power of other royal factions and clergy, have sparked rumours of intrigue and manoeuvring against him.
Among many Saudis, particularly those now middle aged or older, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef is beloved for his campaign to defeat Al Qaeda’s campaign of terror in the kingdom.
In Washington, the departing crown prince was the most prominent figure in the relationship, and his intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation helped to make many careers.
But many younger Saudis – more than half of the population is under 25 – have seen Prince Moham- med bin Salman’s rise as a sign of hope in a climate of uncertainty and fear over an economic future in which revenues from oil can no longer be relied upon. In parallel, young people also yearn for more social freedom. Prince Mohammed has already shown that he is willing to reduce the power of conservative religious forces.
He is also striving to make life more enjoyable for young people and keep qualified Saudis in the country, and to bring women into the workforce – a key component of economic sustainability.
An authority was established last year to invest in creating entertainment options in a country where cinemas are banned, and incentives were offered to entrepreneurs in the nascent sector.
When conservatives complained, the minister said they should “stay home”.
He later said his remarks were taken out of context, but the episode illustrated the challenges such reforms will face.
It had been assumed that Prince Mohammed would probably replace his cousin before his elderly father died. But many thought that would also hinge on his ability to demonstrate successes in the policies he championed, and to consolidate power to beat back opposition from conservatives and others.
The cautious, conservative Prince Mohammed bin Nayef was always considered an option if the bold new path in the end did not work.
But now that option has disappeared and the roadblocks, for now, are gone.