Expulsion of Iran diplomats shakes Kuwait’s balancing act

Kuwait’s decision to expel 15 Iranian diplomats could be the end of the country’s patient attempt to improve relations with Tehran.

The announcement last week was seen as a response to Iran’s involvement in the disappearance of 16 men convicted of belonging to an Iran-backed terrorist cell.

It was also a firm stand against Iran’s interference in the affairs of the 1.5 million Kuwaitis whose sectarian divisions have been considerably less evident compared with its Arabian Gulf neighbours.

But finding a new approach to balancing Kuwait’s relationship with Iran against its commitment to the GCC will challenge its desired regional neutrality and the integrity of its own social dynamics.

Historically, Kuwait has tried to mend fences between Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, mediating to try to further its relations and maintain the security of its border.

But the country cannot maintain its unique brand of neutrality in an increasingly polarised region, especially when its foreign policy is contingent on internal stability that is threatened by an ineffective interior ministry, and now, Iranian interference that is too evident to ignore.

The discovery of 144 kilograms of explosives in August 2015, belonging to militants backed by Iran and Hizbollah known as the Abdali cell, shocked Kuwait. That 15 of the 16 members were Kuwaiti nationals was even more disturbing.

A Kuwaiti lower court last year convicted members linked to the terrorist cell of crimes including spying for foreign bodies, weapons trading and training with firearms with intent to commit violence.

Their sentences, ranging from 10 years in jail to the death penalty, were overturned on appeal.

However, the supreme court last month overturned the acquittals of the 16 men and sentenced one to life, another to 15 years and the rest to 10 years. Last week, Kuwait said all of the men had escaped.

Iran has denied any links, but Kuwaiti officials have accused it of trying to interfere in domestic affairs by infiltrating local Shiite communities.

As it looks to distance itself from Tehran, Kuwait has the monumental task of reassuring its Shiite minority – about a third of its citizens – that they will not be ostracised from Kuwaiti society.

National Kuwaiti identity is based on a bond forged out of necessity to rally together in the face of external confrontation, such as the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

Now facing internal threats, it citizens must unite again.

Weeks before the cell was uncovered, the country had gone through another difficult summer, having been shaken by an terrorist attack claimed by ISIL that killed 27 and injured 227 in a Shiite mosque.

Fears that the attack would incite a sectarian divide were soon allayed thanks to the immediate response by its people and Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Sabah, who arrived at the scene of the attack relatively unguarded within minutes.

Kuwaitis followed the lead. Messages of unity between Shiites and Sunnis, from government circulars to WhatsApp forwards, encouraged the population to band together.

Unlike its Gulf neighbours, Kuwait does not view its relationship with Iran as a reflection of its dealings with its Shiite-population. The demographic is a not an issue. The country still maintains that the Kuwaiti minority is just that: Kuwaiti.

Kuwait will need to assure its people, as was done by Sheikh Sabah in the past, that the national unity cannot be shaken from the ill will of a few. This time, though, that message must be delivered alongside a clear plan for national security.

To stay neutral, Kuwait has an even larger responsibility to maintain internal security, so as not to allow hostilities between regional powers to interfere in its own path for stability in the region.

Although the shifting dynamic and external pressure has forced the country to tread a fine line in many decisions it makes, Kuwait has not isolated itself from Iran and will continue to pursue its role as the Gulf’s bridge.

The discovery of 144 kilograms of explosives in 2015, belonging to militants backed by Iran and Hizbollah known as the Abdali cell, shocked Kuwait. That 15 of the 16 members were Kuwaiti was even more disturbing