Doubts about US airbase in Qatar as dispute rages on

Unease is growing over the effects of a prolonged Qatar dispute on US military operations at Al Udeid airbase, the US defence department and central command say.

As the rift between Qatar and four fellow Arab states goes into week nine, Maj Josh Jacques, media operations chief at Centcom in Florida, said: “While current operations from Al Udeid airbase have not been interrupted or curtailed, the evolving situation is hindering our ability to plan for longer-term military operations.”

Maj Jacques encouraged “all our partners in the region to reduce tensions and work towards common solutions to enable regional security”, adding that there was no plan to change the US presence in Qatar.

Al Udeid is the largest US airbase in the Middle East, housing more than 11,000 personnel.

The US military hosts a combined air operations centre that co-ordinates flights and attacks against ISIL in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.

Centcom’s comment followed its commander’s visit to the UAE and Qatar last week.

Gen Joseph Votel met Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces.

He also met the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim.

Pentagon spokesman Capt Jeff Davis said this month that the US was studying alternatives if the Qatar dispute escalated or dragged on.

While Capt Davis said he was confident that the US military continued “to have full use and access of the base there”, he hinted at contingency plans.

“I think any time you are doing military operations, you are always thinking ahead to plan Bs and plan Cs. We would be remiss if we didn’t do that,” he said.

Nicholas Heras, a fellow at the Centre for a New American Security in Washington, said that “over the last decade and a half, the US military has found great utility in having Al Udeid serve as a co-ordinating hub for operations that it conducts in the greater Middle East region”.

But he said that “the bitter political disagreements that have come to a head within the Gulf appear to be endemic”, sending “a signal of political instability among the United States’ Gulf Arab partners”.

This instability “is a longterm threat to American force posture in the Gulf and in the broader Middle East”, Mr Heras said.

He said that a plan B for the US military was one “looking at using other sites for the base, such as Al Dhafra in Abu Dhabi, or other forward operating sites to conduct military operations.”

Technically and “in order to design and implement a campaign plan, for example to conduct the counter-ISIL campaign, the US military needs to know what bases it can use, where they are situated, what types of forces they can accommodate, and what logistical requirements are unique to using some sites to operate from versus others”.

Asked how the Qatar dispute hinders the US long-term military planning, Mr Heras said that diplomacy and military operations from partner countries went hand-in-hand.

“If there is political instability in the GCC, or if the Trump administration is not settled on how to approach Qatar moving forward, especially if the Qataris renege on their counter-terrorism commitments, that would mean that there is doubt whether a multi-year US military campaign plan could rely on particular basing sites”, such as Al Udeid.

In that context, he said, “contingencies would need to be built into the planning, which means a higher likelihood of disruptions in the military operations, say against ISIL, or in support of operations in Afghanistan, or to counter the threat from Iran”.

US president Donald Trump raised the prospect of the US leaving Al Udeid in an interview with CBN two weeks ago, saying that 10 countries would bid to host the base if the US decided to pull out.

You are always thinking ahead to plan Bs and plan Cs. We would be remiss if we didn’t do that