ANTI-REFERENDUM STAND ADDS TWIST IN KURDISH REGION
▶ ‘No for Now’ drive launched by media organisation but experts sceptical in the absence of an alternative
A television executive in Iraq’s Kurdish region has launched an unexpected domestic push for a “no” vote in an independence referendum next month.
Shaswar Qadir, owner of NRT Television – one of the biggest media organisations in Kurdish Iraq – launched the No for Now campaign this week.
It believes the September 25 referendum, which is opposed by the central Iraqi government in Baghdad, will not serve the interests of the Kurdish population.
“Any successful referendum should have several pre-conditions, including the support of Iraq, Iran, and Turkey, as well as the United States,” Mr Qadir said when he announced his intention to oppose independence last month.
The referendum is also opposed by key international supporters of the Kurdish region, including Turkey, Iran and Germany and, to a lesser degree, the US.
They are fearful of the implications that such a move comes at a time when regional rivalries are at their height.
President of the autonomous Kurdish region Masoud Barazani announced the referendum in June, and it is expected to be an overwhelming vote in favour of full independence from Iraq. An informal referendum in 2005 alongside the parliamentary elections claimed the “yes” vote won by 98.9 per cent.
But the launch of No for Now suggested it may not be a straightforward victory.
“The referendum will not be a step forward towards building an independent and democratic state. It’s a historical and dangerous mistake,” Rabun Maruf, a spokesman for the campaign, said on Tuesday, during the launch event which claimed that the timing is “not suitable”.
Hiwa Osman, an analyst and commentator on Iraq and Kurdistan, said it would be unusual for Kurdish society to be swayed by the campaign.
“Although the No campaign can be influential, it is not stronger than the will of the political parties of Kurdistan”, he said.
In response to the campaign launch, Mr Barazani said: “Those who asked to postpone the referendum must show an alternative”.
Hemin Haearami, a senior adviser to Mr Barazani, said: “If they don’t have a stronger alternative, we cannot postpone and will not.”
In Baghdad, anger over the referendum is growing. “That relationship between Baghdad and Erbil is determined by the Iraqi constitution and the Kurds cannot act unilaterally,” a government spokesman said in June.
“Any decision that concerns the future of Iraq must take into consideration the Iraqi constitution as it is an Iraqi decision,” Saad Al Hadithi, spokesman for prime minister Haidar Al Abadi, said.
The US state department has also voiced its concern that a non-binding independence referendum will be a distraction from “more urgent priorities” such as the defeat of ISIL.
While saying it appreciated the “legitimate aspirations” of the people of Iraqi Kurdistan, the state department said it supports a “unified, federal, stable and democratic Iraq” and had voiced concerns to Kurdish authorities.
Turkey has described the referendum to be “irresponsible”, stressing that it is not within the interests of Iraq or that of the Kurdish Regional Government.
Turkey prime minister Binali Yildirim said: “We believe that this decision is wrong and lacks responsibility, it will also be followed by many problems.”
Germany has also warned that the independence could inflame tensions in Iraq. Foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel said: “We can only warn against one-sided steps on this issue. The unity of Iraq is on the line.
“Redrawing the lines of the state is not the right way and could exacerbate an already difficult and unstable situation, in Erbil as well as Baghdad”.
Mr Gabriel urged that unity must be maintained in Iraq to empower the continued battle against ISIL.