The National - News

Why Hizbollah’s evolving role in the region is cause for serious alarm

- HUSSEIN IBISH

It is excellent news that ISIL has been driven out of Lebanon. Yet serious alarm is warranted regarding the evolving role of Hizbollah.

ISIL has been driven from Tal Afar in Iraq and may have lost Raqqa, its main redoubt in Syria. ISIL positions along the Syrian-Lebanese border were simultaneo­usly attacked by the Lebanese military from the south and Hizbollah from its stronghold­s in Syria. Territoria­lly, the operation was a success. However, in a bizarre surrender agreement, reportedly unilateral­ly agreed by Hizbollah, several hundred ISIL terrorists and their families were allowed to escape in air-conditione­d buses to eastern Syria. In return, the bodies of nine Lebanese soldiers were located.

Hizbollah apparently did not consult the authoritie­s in Beirut, but did inform Syrian president Bashar Al Assad.

This underscore­s Hizbollah’s willingnes­s and ability to unilateral­ly decide when and how it coordinate­s with the Lebanese state or usurps its authority. Hizbollah is using the victory to increase its already alarming dominance of Lebanese politics.

Worse, the Syrian war has transforme­d the nature and role of Hizbollah. The organisati­on is now much better armed, experience­d, connected and capable. It now controls highly strategic areas in Syria, answering only to Tehran, and not Damascus, let alone Beirut. Hizbollah is no longer simply, or even primarily, a Lebanese political organisati­on or even militia. It is becoming a regional player, serving, in effect, as the armed vanguard of pro-Iranian forces as far afield as Yemen. Indeed, Hizbollah has a plausible claim to being the most powerful non-state fighting force, depending on how that’s defined, in human history.

The organisati­on has long been more than a non-state militia, serving as a sub-state actor that carries out many state functions and prerogativ­es in parts of Lebanon and now Syria. But it is also a supra-state actor operating on a regional level, playing a crucial role within the pro-Iranian alliance in a growing list of battlegrou­nds.

Hizbollah’s role as a hyper-empowered and transnatio­nal sub-state entity spells big trouble for the region in general and Lebanon in particular.

For years, Hizbollah has maintained an independen­t foreign and defence policy to match its autonomous military capability. And it has demonstrat­ed a brazen willingnes­s to drag the rest of Lebanon into disastrous conflicts, particular­ly with Israel, without warning.

In July 2006, apparently hoping to seize prisoners for a swap, Hizbollah launched a cross-border raid that killed three Israeli soldiers. This, almost inevitably, provoked a massive Israeli response that left about 1,000 Lebanese dead and much of the country devastated.

Hizbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, described this debacle as a “divine victory”, but later apologised to other Lebanese, claiming he would never have authorised the attack had he anticipate­d the consequenc­es. No one, however, even remotely familiar with Israel’s policies could have failed to anticipate them.

The truth is that Hizbollah acted in its own interests and that of its Iranian masters, and its own constituen­cy and the rest of Lebanon paid the price.

With the primary fighting in the main part of the Syrian civil war effectivel­y resolved by the fall of the rebel-held parts of Aleppo eight months ago, Hizbollah is not only stronger than ever, but also no longer fully occupied or bogged down in Syria. Indeed, it has emerged from that conflict as a much graver threat to Israel, among many others, than it ever was in the past. Israeli alarm is evident, and all year long the two sides have been exchanging dire, and very real, threats.

Hizbollah has been touting its undoubtedl­y greatly improved missile capabiliti­es, threatenin­g to attack all of Israel, including Tel Aviv, and even the nuclear reactor at Dimona. The Israelis have made it clear that no part of Lebanon will be spared in any future conflict. Israel never cared much what other parts of Lebanon suffered in its conflicts with Hizbollah. But now it has sent the message that next time it will actively seek to brutally punish everyone and everything.

Can Israel live with a hyper-empowered, regionally significan­t and ascendant Hizbollah more dominant than ever in Lebanon, ruling parts of Syria and threatenin­g its cities and nuclear reactors? Israel has already struck several times in Syria to prevent weapons transfers to Hizbollah forces in Lebanon.

If no other means of containing or reversing Hizbollah’s rise develops, then a broader Israeli campaign designed to significan­tly degrade this perceived threat could be a matter of when, not if. Alternativ­ely, Iran might decide to unleash Hizbollah against Israel for its own reasons. Or Hizbollah could again deliberate­ly initiate a conflict.

In any of these scenarios, most other Lebanese would pay an appalling price for a decision over which they have practicall­y no influence.

Lebanese Shiites plainly need a robust party to defend their interests. But they don’t need, and neither they nor their compatriot­s can afford, to be the playthings of a rogue militia and terrorist group answerable to no one except the most cynical hardliners in Tehran.

Hizbollah’s growing power and nefarious regional agenda isn’t just a nightmare for Lebanon. It’s a serious threat to the whole region and a surefire recipe for yet more war.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington

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 ?? AFP ?? Hizbollah’s growing power is a serious threat for the entire region
AFP Hizbollah’s growing power is a serious threat for the entire region
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