KIRKUK SET TO BECOME TICKING TIME BOMB OVER KURDISH BALLOT

Iraq condemns decision to take part in plebiscite as it could lead to civil war in province outside Kurdish region

Oil-rich Kirkuk province was considered a model of Iraqi diversity. Now it has become a ticking time bomb.

Estimated to have 4 per cent of the world’s oil resources, Kirkuk last week said the province would take part in Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence vote, even though it is not part of the Kurdistan region.

The move raised tensions between ethnic leaders of Kirkuk – home to Iraqi Arabs, Turkmen, Christians and Kurds – and angered the authorities in Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iraqi prime minister Haider Al Abadi rejected the decision and his spokesman, Saad Al Hadithi, called it “illegal and unconstitutional”.

“Provinces that don’t belong to the autonomous region of Kurdistan can’t impose decisions without the federal government’s approval and Kirkuk is one of these regions,” Mr Hadithi said.

The Kirkuk provincial council held a vote on Tuesday on whether Kirkuk should take part in the referendum on independence, which is scheduled for September 25.

Only 24 of the 41 council members attended the vote, with 23 voting in favour of taking part and one abstaining. The other council members, all Arabs and Turkmen, boycotted the vote, denouncing it as unconstitutional.

The decision is expected to have dangerous implications for Kirkuk and Iraq.

Iraq’s Kurds plan to hold the referendum in three governorates that make up their region – Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok – and disputed areas that are controlled by Kurdish forces but claimed by Baghdad, among them Kirkuk.

Arshad Al Salhi, a member of the Kirkuk provincial council and the head of the Iraqi Turkmen Front, said: “It will increase tensions between Arab, Turkmen and Kurdish residents creating a civil war in Kirkuk. Once again the administrative council of Kirkuk proved that it no longer works in partnership with parties in the province.

“It adopts an individualistic approach that goes against the Iraqi constitution and laws that are in effect throwing Kirkuk into the chaos of nationalist conflicts, which will lead nowhere but to problems.”

He said the decision to include Kirkuk went against Article 143 of the Iraq constitution, which stipulates Kirkuk is outside the border of Kurdistan.

“There is no constitutional situation to hold the referendum in Kirkuk,” Mr Al Salhi said. “Taking this decision in the absence of Turkmen and Arab members of council renders the decision illegitimate.”

Concerns for the safety of Kirkuk’s residents have been on the rise as violence is expected if the Kurdish referendum takes place.

“There is always a risk of rioting in Kirkuk and in the past there have been lethal shootings at such events,” said Michael Knights, Iraq analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

But security forces are well prepared and are focused on reducing the risks of confrontation with opponents of the referendum, Mr Knights said.

Kurdish forces took control of the province and other areas in the summer of 2014, when ISIL swept across northern and central Iraq and the Iraqi armed forces crumbled.

The move infuriated the Turkmen and Arabs of Kirkuk because the success of the Kurdish forces in keeping ISIL out also gave the Kurds the upper hand in local politics.

In March, Kirkuk authorities decided to raise the flag of the Kurdistan Regional Government over public buildings, an act that was roundly criticised by the federal government.

In August, Kirkuk’s Kurdish governor Najmaldin Karim said the region “has been and will be” part of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The move also raised fears that the Kurds are using the fight against ISIL as an excuse to cement their hold in the city.

Since 2003, Kurdish migration to Kirkuk has increased significantly, which Baghdad says is “considerably changing Kirkuk’s demographics”.

The province is often referred to as “little Iraq”, as most politicians believe that the governorate is “a microcosm of Iraq”, representing the major conflicts between the nation’s diverse communities.

Kurds, on the other hand, refer to Kirkuk city as the “Jerusalem of Kurdistan”, one they lost and yearn to get back.

But many Arabs, Turkmen and Christians claim that Kurdish authorities in Kirkuk use murder and kidnapping to intimidate minorities into leaving the governorate, thus altering the demographics.

Turkey and Iran have been critical of Kurdistan’s increasing influence over the city, as they too have a Kurdish minority and oppose the plebiscite.

Ziya Meral, a researcher specialising in Turkey and the Middle East, said: “Turkey opposes a Kurdish independence in Iraq and sees any inclusion of Kirkuk in an emerging Kurdistan as a trigger for conflict.”

Turkey will respond economically to Kurdish ambitions, Mr Meral said.

“Turkey will seek to use its economic leverage on the KRG. Ankara is facing a complex challenge,” he said. “It does not want to undermine the Kurdish Democratic Party, yet at the same time it wants to stop the KRG from becoming an independent country.”

Mr Meral said that in the long run, Kurdish independence in Iraq is “inevitable and does not pose a threat to Turkey as Ankara can work with Iraqi Kurds”.

“Yet, in the short and medium term, Turkey sees further fragmentation of Iraq as a threat.”

Concerns for the safety of Kirkuk’s residents are on the rise as violence is expected if the Kurdish referendum takes place