NUCLEAR POWER IS THE FUTURE, DESPITE A SLOWDOWN, SAYS IAEA
New atomic nations such as the UAE will erode doubts about energy source, experts predict
The long-term potential for nuclear power remains high, although global growth is forecast to slow in coming years, the International Atomic Energy Agency says.
The International Status and Prospects for Nuclear Power
2017 report found that the decline would mainly be caused by some countries retiring their nuclear plants early.
“This was caused by the reduced competitiveness of nuclear power in the short run and national nuclear policies in several countries following the accident at Fukushima, in Japan, in 2011,” the report says.
“If nuclear power’s potential as a low-carbon energy source grows in recognition and advanced reactor designs further improve safety and radioactive waste management, the use of nuclear power could grow significantly.”
The report analyses factors that could influence the future of nuclear power, such as funding, electricity markets and public acceptance.
The UAE has begun to build its first nuclear power plant since the agency’s last report in 2014. The first phase of the nuclear programme will become operational next year, with the entire project expected to be up and running by 2020.
“The very unpredictable energy markets and even more unpredictable natural events and socio-political acceptance of nuclear energy makes the growth sporadic,” said Dr Anthony Hechanova, the head of advanced energy technology at Abu Dhabi Polytechnic.
Dr Hechanova, who is “a keen advocate for the benefits of nuclear energy”, said he was confident that by end of the century, atomic power would be a major provider of clean energy.
“There simply isn’t any other large-scale source to satisfy the global energy thirst after the end of the fossil fuel economy,” he said. “The nuclear industry is maybe only equalled by the aviation industry in its safety culture.
“It speaks volumes that safety is always on the forefront and that the industry and regulators seek even safer plants.”
The agency’s projections for global installed nuclear capacity show, in the worst case, declines of 12 per cent by 2030 and 15 per cent by 2040, before it rebounds to present levels by 2050.
Lady Barbara Judge, a former head of the UK Atomic Energy Authority and member of the International Advisory Board for the UAE, is very optimistic about the future of nuclear energy.
“I believe the recognition of nuclear power’s potential as a low-carbon energy source will grow in the future, particularly because of China and the Central European countries including Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as Thailand, Turkey and the Middle East, such as Jordan, Egypt and, of course, the UAE,” Lady Judge said.
“All of these countries need low-carbon baseload generation and they are the future of nuclear. The technology of reactors is improving all the time and after Fukushima, there is an even greater focus on safety.”
“However, people who understand energy know that even before Fukushima, nuclear power had the best safety record of any energy source.”
Nobuyasu Abe, the vice chairman of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, said the longterm future depends on three major uncertainties: how serious people become about reducing carbon emissions; how far the technology has come for overcoming the intermittency of renewable energy; and how people understand the improved safety and accept the risk of nuclear power stations.
“In Japan, people are still very averse to nuclear power,” Mr Abe said. “If it should maintain a certain degree of nuclear power it may have to introduce some kind of incentive to do so, such as subsidies, financial support and price assurance.
“Carbon tax is a way to generate a level playground for nuclear and other energy sources.”
Others believe there will be a growing recognition of the importance of nuclear power in global efforts to curb carbon emissions.
“Within the foreseeable future, renewable energy sources will not be able to cover the increasing energy demands,” said Dr John Bernhard, Denmark’s former envoy to the agency.
“For nuclear energy to be a significant part of the energy mix of many countries, safety and security measures must be convincingly strong and credible, and similar attention must be paid to waste management. These aspects are of crucial importance to decision-makers and the public.”