Syria peace drive should focus on devolution, not removing Al Assad
Ceasefire efforts in Syria are doomed to failure unless European states focus on devolution rather than on removing president Bashar Al Assad, according to a new report.
While Mr Al Assad’s continued rule is a bitter pill to swallow, the report by the European Council on Foreign Relations said that there was no alternative if peace was to be achieved in Syria.
“Assad’s continued rule offends the European sense of justice, but Europeans have no other choice if they want to bring some peace to Syria,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, the author of the report.
But Mr Barnes-Dacey believes there may be a “small window of opportunity” to strike a deal with Mr Al Assad in which he would agree a devolution of power – a significant step down from his ambitions for total coercive control. Speaking exclusively to The National, Mr Barnes-Dacey said: “It is clear that Assad wants to regain control of every inch of Syria. But he nonetheless faces significant capacity constraints, as well as the reality of foreign backing for different spheres of influence across the country.
“This means that at the moment, he can’t wrest back control of all of Syria. And that gives outside players a degree of leverage to shape a deal.
“What I’m questioning is whether there is an opportunity to do a deal with Assad that concedes his nominal control over all of Syria, in exchange for him granting a degree of local autonomy, on the basis of devolution, in the remaining opposition zones of control.”
The alternative, according to Mr Barnes-Dacey, is for the international community to insist that Mr Assad relinquishes control – something that he says would not succeed.
“Assad is obviously still in a strong position. If the basis of the deal is that Assad has to step down, or that he has to grant so much local authority that the state moves towards break-up, there is no chance that he will agree.
“He will say ‘I will wait you guys out, until you eventually leave’.”
Given the crisis facing the Syrian population, and the fact that the alternative is a continued attempt by Mr Al Assad to wrest back total control, Mr Barnes-Dacey argues that this is the best potential option.
The paper also suggests an opening for European action given the lack of a political strategy underpinning Russian and US-led de-escalation efforts.
It urges European members of the International Syria Support Group – the EU, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK – to forge a joint European position that focuses on injecting viable political vision into the negotiations.
“No one is leading on the political track at the moment,” Mr Barnes-Dacey said. “There is this Russian and American-led effort to create local ceasefires, but they are detached from any strategic vision about what that means politically.
“The Europeans know that there has to be a change in tack.”
Mr Barnes-Dacey believes that French president Emmanuel Macron’s focus on Syria make France the natural leader of this initiative.
“If there is going to be any European push, it has to come out of Paris,” he said. “The British are too preoccupied with Brexit, and no other European state has the political clout to take a lead on this issue.”
Mr Barnes-Dacey is fully aware that the path he outlines is “difficult and uncertain”. He also acknowledges that there are many people who would oppose his suggestion.
“Of course, for Syrians who have lived through the pain and suffering, it’s self-evident that there will be pushback – and understandably so. It’s simply too unpalatable for many of them to accept,” he said.
“But the fact remains that no alternative exists. Assad is still in place, and he has to be part of the solution. The challenge that policymakers face is to work within that context.
“The international community can continue to battle on in a scenario in which the odds increasingly favour the regime. Or they can cut a deal with Assad that could open the door towards sustained de-escalation of tensions.
“Without a political track, the current ceasefires will surely collapse into renewed violence.”