Vote will go ahead despite opposition, says analyst

Kurdish leaders in Iraq are likely to push ahead with their independence referendum despite calls to suspend next week’s vote, according to a leading analyst.

On Monday, the Iraqi supreme court ordered that the poll – planned for September 25 – be postponed until questions over its legality were addressed.

Iraqi prime minister Haider Al Abadi has also formally demanded the suspension of the vote, while neighbours Turkey and Iran, as well as the United States and United Nations, have pleaded for the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq to settle its differences with Baghdad through negotiation rather than secession.

But Prof Gareth Stansfield, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said he expects Kurdish leaders to ignore these demands.

“The simple fact is that the [Iraqi] constitution doesn’t have a provision in it for secessionist movements, therefore it’s neither legal nor illegal,” he said. “Irrespective of that, I can’t imagine that the Barzani team will pay much attention to what the court in Iraq says.”

In a new report, Prof Stansfield argues that Kurdish leaders view the move towards independence as a “logical, and perhaps even necessary” initiative, and that Middle Eastern states and other regional powers may be more prepared to accept this aspiration than their western counterparts.

“The orthodox view is that Turkey, Iran and the Arab states would oppose Kurdish independence because they want to preserve Iraq’s integrity,” he said.

“However, you can make an interesting case that perhaps Turkey especially, but also the Arab states, would view the emergence of an independent Kurdistan republic more favourably now.”

While Turkey’s reaction is hard to predict, Prof Stansfield suggested it is not guaranteed that it will block any secessionist movement.

“It is very difficult to read what happens with Turkey, but we need to be a little bit more careful in saying it will just oppose this,” he said. “Turkey could have stopped this whole initiative at any time over the past two years.

“Yes, there are lots of public pronouncements about it, but then you start to look at the nature of the relationship and what it’s been doing or not doing, and you can make a counter-intuitive case that it is actually quite supportive of independence.”

As for Iran, Prof Stansfield argues it has “no particular view” on preserving Iraqi integrity, while he notes that Arab states have developed “extremely strong relationships” with Erbil over the past few years, with a number of consulates opening up in the region, and new trade relationships.

“There has also been quite a groundswell of support for Kurdish independence coming from Saudi Arabia [visible online],” he said.