US leaning towards ‘decertifying’ Iran deal
The Trump administration is leaning towards decertifying the Iran nuclear deal in the next few weeks in an attempt to reopen negotiations in a more holistic approach towards Tehran.
Under US law, a 90-day review is required for the deal known as the joint comprehensive plan of action to be submitted to congress. The Trump administration has so far certified Iran’s compliance twice since it has taken office, but is now inclined to do otherwise before the next deadline on October 15, an administration official in New York said.
But regional diplomats cautioned that any final decision will only come from Donald Trump, and he could change his mind on the deliberations.
An official told The National that the Trump team was “leaning in the direction of decertifying the deal” which would then kick the ball to congress to decide its fate.
US national security adviser HR McMaster said yesterday that any announcement on the nuclear deal “will fit into a fundamentally sound and broad strategy aimed at addressing Iran’s destabilising behaviour and prioritising the protection of American interests”.
Mr McMaster said Mr Tump was seeking to renegotiate portions of the deal related to its sunset clause and Iran’s ballistic missile programmes.
Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies – and in close contact with the administration on Iran – said that the White House planned to “roll out a comprehensive rollback strategy against the Iranian regime, which includes a strategy to fix the fatally flawed deal that gives Tehran patient pathways to nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles”.
Mr Dubowitz said it was highly likely that Mr Trump would refuse to certify the deal by October 15.
It would then be up to congress to decide to reinstate the sanctions suspended or lifted under the deal, he said. “Congress is unlikely to do so if they believe the administration has a serious rollback and plan to fix the deal,” he said.
The decertification in itself automatically provides a 60day window for congress to decide whether to reimpose sanctions that were in place in 2015 and could dismantle the deal. This kind of threat is what the US administration is looking for to bring European partners to the table to renegotiate the agreement.
“The credibility of Mr Trump’s walk-away threat is motivating the Europeans to find a transatlantic consensus on how to fix the deal” Mr Dubowitz said.
Such a move would be less severe than decertification but would be acceptable for the White House only if it convinces the Europeans to get on board on board with amending the agreement related to the ballistic missile threat.