From Russia with … gravity?
Experts say blazing trails were from supply capsule for the International Space Station disintegrating in the atmosphere
A streak of fire in the night that set social media ablaze on Monday looks likely to be something Russian – although exactly what appears to have experts divided.
The spectacular fireworks display – thought to be a Progress cargo ship combusting in the Earth’s atmosphere – lit up the skies of the UAE shortly before 8pm.
It’s almost certainly Russian, but space experts are still divided over exactly what it was that sent a huge trail of orange fire over the skies of the UAE on Monday night.
According to Hasan Al Hariri, of the Dubai Astronomy Group, the spectacular firework display was a Progress cargo ship burning up in the Earth’s atmosphere after its mission to the International Space Station.
“When I analysed the video it was clear this was falling space debris disintegrating in the atmosphere,” said Mr Al Hariri, discounting first official reports of a meteor.
Unmanned Progress ships are regularly sent to resupply the ISS. “Such modules are guided in such a way that it burns in the air and does not fall into a populated area,” Mr Al Hariri said.
“This was part of the Progress module that supplies the International Space Station with water, food and equipment. It is an unmanned vehicle that is totally autonomous, it docks at the station, the equipment is removed and it’s sent back where it burns in the atmosphere.”
The group issued a report saying: “The view was spectacular and lasted for almost 80 seconds. The spacecraft disintegrated in the upper atmosphere and broke up into smaller chunks and burnt like fireworks. The trajectory of the debris was over the Arabian peninsula, crossing the UAE and Oman and finally over the Indian Ocean.”
But at least one satellite tracking service reported that the object was the upper stage of a Russian Soyez rocket.
The object, designated 42972 by the North American Aerospace Defence Command, known as NORAO, was said to have come from the successful launch of another Progress module to the ISS on October 14.
Several sites predicted that the third stage of the Soyuz, weighing nearly 2,500 kilograms, was due to re-enter at the time of the sightings in the sky, at just before 7.30pm and on a trajectory that crossed the Arabian Gulf and the UAE.
The Progress module the Soyuz was carrying docked with the ISS on Monday. But a previous cargo ship had also been docked at the ISS after another launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan in July.
Progress MS-06 was launched in July, while Progress MS-07 arrived at the ISS on October 16. It is not yet clear if the spaceship launched in July has now been undocked to make way for the new arrival, and could also be the burning object seen over the UAE.
Whatever the cause, the unexplained visitor caused a storm on social media, with photographs and videos widely shared and commented on.
Sightings were reported in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and the Northern Emirates, as well as in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
A reporter for observed bright streaks of orange moving approximately north to south from Khalifa City and moving at the speed of an aircraft.
“There appeared to be multiple points of orange light moving together, and in a straight line,” he said.
“At the centre of the cluster one point appeared to be glowing red. The lights were visible for only a few seconds before moving behind a nearby house, and seemingly descending. There was no sound. I have never seen anything like it.”
Other observers said the object appeared to disintegrate further as it moved across the sky.
Initial speculation ranged from a large meteor shower, to the break-up of the 8.5-tonne Tiangong-1 – a Chinese space laboratory – which is expected in the next few months.
Dubai media office then entered the discussion, tweeting a report from the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Centre that: “a meteor has passed through the skies of Dubai.”
Neither the media office nor the space centre has made any further comment on the object.
Describing the difference between a meteor shower and falling space debris, Mr Al Hariri said the main contrast was speed.
“The clear evidence of a manmade object and event from a natural occurrence of a meteor fall is that meteor fireballs rush in at very high speed and burn in the atmosphere or explode in the sky, leaving a trace of gas behind,” he said. “A meteor glow would have been much bigger than what people saw last night.”
Space junk regularly burns up in the atmosphere, said Mr Hariri, with two more similar events expected to occur today and tomorrow, although not visible from the UAE.
Debris from a Japanese amateur micro-radio satellite will fall over Australia today, but will dissipate into ashes in the atmosphere, he said, describing its size as equivalent to a 1.5 litre water bottle.
The next chunk of space debris is part of a protective sheet from the International Space Station that was dislodged during a maintenance spacewalk. This would burn up tomorrow, he said.
“Both are not big enough to be noticed and nothing like what was seen on Monday night,” Mr Hariri said. “Sightings like the one on Monday are good because people will have more awareness of how to distinguish natural and manmade objects.”
Space treaties now govern the disposal of satellites so the launch and re-entry can be tracked on websites.
“The debris that people saw burnt up over the Empty Quarter. People were able to see it because the burning happened when it was 140 kilometres above the ground.
“It ignited, burnt up, then you could see the pieces move down and it finally disappeared over the Indian Ocean.”