CHINA’S COMMUNIST PARTY WATCHES AND WAITS ON XI
In Beijing, the leadership of a superpower arrives at a crossroads, writes
That Chinese leader Xi Jinping was recently named “the world’s most powerful man” in an Economist cover story is a mark of China’s standing in the world and an indicator of where its ambitions lie. But as the next twice-in-a-decade meeting of the country’s Communist Party begins today, the question on many observers’ minds is whether Mr Xi intends to hold on to power beyond his 10-year term, or if he is beginning to plan for a future for China without him at the helm.
When Mr Xi took over from Hu Jintao as China’s most senior leader in 2012, it was unclear which direction he would take, politically and in terms of leadership style.
“We didn’t know if Xi was going to be a reformer or conservative,” said Helen Gao, a Beijing native and governance and law analyst at China Policy, a research and advisory company in the Chinese capital.
“But it’s become clear that Xi is a conservative who wants to guarantee party rule.”
Since taking the top post, Mr Xi has purged his party of enemies and political rivals such as the charismatic Bo Xilai, once party chief of Chongqing province, and Ling Jihua, a former senior aide to Mr Hu.
The military was also shown who was in charge, as Mr Xi sacked many generals.
Through his centralisation of power, experts said, Mr Xi wanted to ensure the dominance and legitimacy of the Communist Party and himself as the man in charge.
“What makes this party congress significant is that Xi Jinping has shaken up expectations about how Chinese leaders in the post-Tiananmen era are supposed to handle things,” said Jeffrey Wasserstrom, a professor and historian of modern China at the University of California, Irvine.
Prof Wasserstrom pointed to Mr Hu and another of Mr Xi’s predecessors, Jiang Zemin, who by the midway points of their 10-year terms had made it clear who would succeed them.
Mr Xi, however, has not yet designated an heir apparent. Meanwhile, ahead of the 19th party congress, he has placed himself at the centre of plans for what the government has termed China’s “national rejuvenation”, the details of which Mr Xi is expected to set out at the week-long meeting.
Prof Wasserstrom said he will be following the congress to see if Mr Xi gives any “indications of staying on beyond 10 years”.
Mr Xi’s tight grip on power has drawn comparisons with Russian president Vladimir Putin. Like Mr Putin, Mr Xi works hard on cultivating public approval, with propaganda that includes a heady dose of nationalism, and slogans such as “The China Dream”. The congress is, meanwhile, expected to focus on poverty alleviation, something that will bolster Mr Xi’s good standing among China’s rural population – always an important grassroots ally for the country’s communist leaders.
Alongside this is Mr Xi’s long-stated aim of building a “moderately prosperous society” by 2020, a goal that includes raising household incomes and reducing income inequality.
The other big question is what will happen to the man considered China’s second most powerful, Wang Qishan. Mr Wang is a member of the seven-man politburo standing committee, made up of China’s top leadership, and has publicly led Mr Xi’s anti-corruption campaign since 2013.
Mr Wang is 69, an age when committee members are expected to retire. It is rumoured Mr Xi might replace prime minister Li Keqiang with Mr Wang. That would break with the tradition of prime ministers serving two terms.
Also in the spotlight is Chen Min’er, holder of the most senior political position in Chongqing province. Mr Chen has risen rapidly through the party ranks, and observers are waiting to see if Mr Xi will promote him to the standing committee. If Mr Xi promotes Mr Chen but not any other party members from the so-called “sixth generation” – those born in the 1960s – that would suggest Mr Xi is grooming Mr Chen to be his successor.
A promotion to the standing committee would mark a meteoric rise for Mr Chen, but his political credentials in governing Chongqing, and previously Guizhou province, suggest greater power is in the Xi protege’s future.
Beyond internal politics, Ms Gao believed China under Mr Xi is not yet willing to take on the United States for the position of the biggest power.
“China will play a bigger role in things like climate change, but it doesn’t have the same ambition as the US does, and won’t provide the security the US does,” she said.
The 19th congress, she said, will focus more on strengthening China domestically.
Although Beijing may not yet want to replace the US on the global stage, China has poured billions into investments and infrastructure projects abroad, suggesting it wants to establish a significant sphere of influence.
US president Donald Trump arrives in China on November 8 for a three-day visit as part of his first Asia tour.