PUTIN SEES NEW STAGE FOR SYRIA WITH ‘REAL CHANCE FOR WAR’S END’
▶ The opposition is under pressure to compromise and unite ahead of UN peace talks in Geneva next week
The Russian president said yesterday that a new stage had been reached in the Syrian conflict but a political solution would require compromises from all sides, including the government.
Vladimir Putin’s hosted a meeting with Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president, and the Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
Mr Putin said after the meeting that they had agreed to a congress of Syria’s regime and opposition forces to discuss “the parameters of the future state”.
He said that the congress would be “a stimulus for activating the efforts for Syria regulation in the framework of the Geneva process”.
The meeting was aimed at resuscitating the peace process in Syria and comes two days after Mr Putin hosted the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, who was on a rare trip outside his country.
Mr Putin said a political settlement in Syria would be finalised within the frameworks of UN peace talks in Geneva.
The Russian president is encouraged by military successes of Russian and Syrian forces against rebel groups and ISIL and hopes to breathe new life into stuttering negotiations.
“What happens in Geneva and Riyadh will depend on what happens in Sochi,” said Andrew Parasiliti, the director of the Rand Centre for Global Risk and Security.
“Russia, Iran and Turkey are an uneasy alignment, their interests are not a perfect match but the Astana process, which they are driving, is nonetheless setting the pace for the winding down of the Syria war,” he said.
Mr Putin stressed “the militants in Syria have been dealt a decisive blow and a real chance has appeared to bring an end to many years of civil war”. He said a political settlement in Syria was the “strategic task”.
“Putin is seeking to move from the military to political track in Syria, but can he get there? There are still some hurdles,” Mr Parasiliti said. “There is the coming battle for Idlib, where Al Qaeda’s Syria affiliates and allies and other radical armed groups have taken hold, as well as whether Turkey will consider military action in Afrin or elsewhere against the People’s Protection Units.”
For many years, western and Arab countries backed the opposition demand that Mr Al Assad leave power.
But since Russia joined the war on behalf of the Assad regime three years ago, Damascus has recaptured all Syria’s major cities from anti-Assad rebels, making it increasingly clear that Mr Al Assad’s opponents have no path to victory on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, members of the Syrian opposition gathered in Riyadh for a meeting that intends to outline a unified vision ahead of UN peace talks in Geneva.
Syrian opposition groups will stick to their demand – that Mr Al Assad leave power at the start of any political transition – despite speculation they could soften their position in light of the government’s strength on the battlefield.
The opposition is divided on other key issues including the length of any political transitional period and a constitution that will allow the country to move towards elections.
At the Riyadh conference yesterday, the UN envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, urged opposition groups to unify before the UN talks starting next Tuesday.
Mr De Mistura said the aim was “to give momentum to next week’s talks in Geneva by forging a unified opposition delegation, as long demanded by the Syrian government”.
The envoy said he would be pressing hard for real negotiations on a new constitution and UN-supervised elections “all in the context of continuing to work on a credible, all-inclusive, non-sectarian governance and on combating terrorism”.
“We will also press on the issue of the appalling plight of detainees, abductees and missing persons – and on full humanitarian access in any besieged area or hard-to-reach-area including … Eastern Ghouta,” he said.
Mr de Mistura said he would travel to Moscow today for talks with Russian officials: “I’m always optimistic, especially in this moment.”
The 140 or so delegates meeting in Riyadh are under heavy pressure to row back on some of their more radical demands.
Saudi foreign minister Adel Al Jubeir told delegates yesterday that a solution could only come about by consensus.
Putin is seeking to move from the military to political track in Syria, but can he get there? There are still some hurdles
ANDREW PARASILITI
Rand Centre for Global Risk