ON THE DOORSTEP OF DAMASCUS, A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
Eastern Ghouta was one of four battle-free zones agreed in a deal between rebels and backers of the regime – but the situation in the area makes a mockery of that
Syria’s rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta near the capital is the Achilles’ heel of the regime, so a military offensive there is inevitable, experts say.
The battle-scarred region east of Damascus, which has been under near daily bombardment and a government siege since 2013, is strategically crucial to president Bashar Al Assad.
Residents are facing a humanitarian crisis, while rebels use it as a launch pad for rocket and mortar attacks on the capital.
Joshua Landis, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said the continuing rebellion in Eastern Ghouta belied the regime “presenting itself as the winner” of Syria’s war elsewhere.
“The persistence of the East Ghouta resistance has become a major embarrassment and liability for the Assad regime,” Mr Landis said.
The Assad regime, backed by its ally Russia, has retaken control of more than half of the country, with victories against rebel and extremist forces.
“It hopes to convince the international community that it faces little opposition anymore save for the enclaves on the margins of Syria,” Mr Landis said. But rebel and extremist groups this week surrounded a regime base on the edge of Eastern Ghouta, prompting intensified air strikes.
Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said the enclave was the regime’s weak spot.
“The factions there are strong and directly threaten Damascus,” Mr Abdel Rahman said.
Eastern Ghouta was one of four battle-free zones agreed to under a deal between rebel and regime backers, but fighting has continued.
Regime air strikes and artillery fire has killed thousands of people since 2011. The rebels meanwhile have killed hundreds of civilians with mortar rounds and rockets fired at Damascus, although such attacks have waned since the regime seized areas close to the capital.
The 100-square-kilometre enclave’s 400,000 inhabitants are suffering severe shortages of food and medicine. Children are particularly vulnerable to malnutrition. But rebel groups “still have a popular base, because thousands of their fighters are from the region”, Mr Abdel Rahman said.
Jaish Al Islam, a powerful rebel group that has recognised the “de-escalation” deal and takes part in UNbacked peace talks, is among the most powerful groups in Eastern Ghouta. It controls Douma, the largest city in the region, but shares power with Faylaq Al Rahman, another rebel group that controls Erbin and Hammuriyeh.
But the offensive against the regime military base was the work of Ahrar Al Sham and an alliance dominated by the extremists of Fateh Al Sham, a former Al Qaeda affiliate.
Syria analyst Sam Heller of the Century Foundation said the regime had responded by intensifying its operations, “whatever the cost in terms of troops and reinforcements”.
Mr Heller said things were moving “towards a militarily settlement in the regime’s favour” in areas held by Faylaq Al Rahman, Ahrar Al Sham and the Fateh Al Sham-dominated alliance.
But the situation is different in areas controlled by Jaish Al Islam, he said. The group “is an armed force that is not to be underestimated and it controls large residential areas that the regime would struggle to absorb”, Mr Heller said.
He said talks between the group and Russia could lead to “a negotiated solution that would leave it in place once it has made some concessions”.
Mr Landis said the battle-free deal for the area would be “nibbled away at” in the coming weeks. “Assad has preferred until now to starve and bomb the Ghouta enclave rather than launch an expensive frontal attack,” he said.
Rights groups and the UN have criticised reconciliation agreements in which civilians are moved to safety after sieges and bombardment. Such deals have seen rebels transferred to Idlib in the north, the only province in Syria fully outside regime control.
“We should also expect that increased pressure will be applied to the Ghouta militias to surrender or agree to reconciliation or deportation to Idlib,” Mr Landis said.